Happy Valley · 2024-11-06
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-06 was Class 4 over 1200m. BEAUTY DESTINY, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with STORMING DRAGON second and LEAN MASTER third. The 1.8 favourite STORMING DRAGON finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | BEAUTY DESTINY H/P/TT 1.09.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 10 | 10.0 | SH |
| 2 | 4 | STORMING DRAGON B/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 2 | 1.8 | SH |
| 3 | 3 | LEAN MASTER B/TT E C W Wong · C H Yip | E C W Wong | C H Yip | 4 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | MIGHTY COMMANDER H/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 3 | 17.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | FUN N GLORY XB B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 9 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | YEAH BUDDY B/H1/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 1 | 78.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | DRAGON AIR FORCE XB1/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 6 | 5.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | WOOD ON FIRE V/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 12 | 60.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | KING ECCELLENTE SR-/XB/B2 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 5 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | REGENT GLORY B B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 7 | 61.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | BEAUTY LIGHT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 8 | 64.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | PANDA LEGEND TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 11 | 62.0 | 4-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | STORMING DRAGON | 35.5% | 2.81 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | DRAGON AIR FORCE | 9.8% | 10.20 | 7 |
| 3 | 3 | LEAN MASTER | 9.4% | 10.68 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | FUN N GLORY | 9.0% | 11.11 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | MIGHTY COMMANDER | 8.3% | 12.07 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | KING ECCELLENTE | 7.3% | 13.79 | 9 |
| 7 | 8 | BEAUTY DESTINY | 6.0% | 16.80 | 1 |
| 8 | 5 | PANDA LEGEND | 4.3% | 23.36 | 12 |
| 9 | 6 | BEAUTY LIGHT | 4.2% | 23.76 | 11 |
| 10 | 7 | REGENT GLORY | 3.0% | 33.21 | 10 |
| 11 | 9 | YEAH BUDDY | 1.7% | 57.59 | 6 |
| 12 | 12 | WOOD ON FIRE | 1.6% | 63.59 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 104
PLACE
3 27.5
4 11
8 24.5
QUINELLA
4,8 79.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 37.5
3,8 124.5
4,8 35.5
FORECAST
8,4 279
TIERCE
8,4,3 1,697
TRIO
3,4,8 248
FIRST 4
2,3,4,8 558
QUARTET
8,4,3,2 18,080
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
3/10/4 508
3/10/8 8,768
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,10/3,4,8 13,834
4TH DOUBLE
10/4 24.5
10/8 890