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Happy Valley · 2024-11-06

Race 5

Class 4 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-06 was Class 4 over 1200m. BEAUTY DESTINY, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with STORMING DRAGON second and LEAN MASTER third. The 1.8 favourite STORMING DRAGON finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 BEAUTY DESTINY H/P/TT 1.09.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · F C Lor 10 10.0 SH
2 4 STORMING DRAGON B/TT Z Purton · J Richards 2 1.8 SH
3 3 LEAN MASTER B/TT E C W Wong · C H Yip 4 10.0 1-1/4
4 2 MIGHTY COMMANDER H/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 3 17.0 2
5 11 FUN N GLORY XB B Avdulla · D J Hall 9 13.0 2-1/4
6 9 YEAH BUDDY B/H1/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 1 78.0 2-3/4
7 10 DRAGON AIR FORCE XB1/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 6 5.7 2-3/4
8 12 WOOD ON FIRE V/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 12 60.0 3-1/4
9 1 KING ECCELLENTE SR-/XB/B2 H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 13.0 3-3/4
10 7 REGENT GLORY B B Thompson · D A Hayes 7 61.0 4-1/4
11 6 BEAUTY LIGHT A Badel · J Size 8 64.0 4-1/4
12 5 PANDA LEGEND TT K De Melo · W Y So 11 62.0 4-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY DESTINY2. STORMING DRAGON+0.1L3. LEAN MASTER+1.25L4. MIGHTY COMMANDER+2L5. FUN N GLORY+2.25L6. YEAH BUDDY+2.75L7. DRAGON AIR FORCE+2.75L8. WOOD ON FIRE+3.25L9. KING ECCELLENTE+3.75L10. REGENT GLORY+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick STORMING DRAGON (35.5%) finished 2nd — the winner BEAUTY DESTINY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 STORMING DRAGON 35.5% 2.81 2
2 10 DRAGON AIR FORCE 9.8% 10.20 7
3 3 LEAN MASTER 9.4% 10.68 3
4 11 FUN N GLORY 9.0% 11.11 5
5 2 MIGHTY COMMANDER 8.3% 12.07 4
6 1 KING ECCELLENTE 7.3% 13.79 9
7 8 BEAUTY DESTINY 6.0% 16.80 1
8 5 PANDA LEGEND 4.3% 23.36 12
9 6 BEAUTY LIGHT 4.2% 23.76 11
10 7 REGENT GLORY 3.0% 33.21 10
11 9 YEAH BUDDY 1.7% 57.59 6
12 12 WOOD ON FIRE 1.6% 63.59 8
STORMING DRAGONDRAGON AIR FORCELEAN MASTERFUN N GLORYMIGHTY COMMANDERKING ECCELLENTEBEAUTY DESTINY — wonPANDA LEGENDBEAUTY LIGHTREGENT GLORYYEAH BUDDYWOOD ON FIRE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 104

PLACE

3 27.5

4 11

8 24.5

QUINELLA

4,8 79.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 37.5

3,8 124.5

4,8 35.5

FORECAST

8,4 279

TIERCE

8,4,3 1,697

TRIO

3,4,8 248

FIRST 4

2,3,4,8 558

QUARTET

8,4,3,2 18,080

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

3/10/4 508

3/10/8 8,768

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,10/3,4,8 13,834

4TH DOUBLE

10/4 24.5

10/8 890