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Happy Valley · 2024-11-06

Race 9

Class 2 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 9 2.4 1/2
2 7 FLAMINGO TRILLION K C Leung · F C Lor 6 5.5 1/2
3 2 TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early K De Melo · Y S Tsui 3 20.0 3/4
4 9 RED HARE KING Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 12 7.8 1-1/2
5 1 MR ASCENDENCY TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu 5 48.0 1-3/4
6 8 KEEFY M F Poon · F C Lor 4 40.0 2-1/2
7 4 CAPITAL DELIGHT TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 2 12.0 3-1/4
8 5 YELLOWFIN XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 8 13.0 3-3/4
9 12 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 10 15.0 4
10 10 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng 11 21.0 4-3/4
11 3 WOODFIRE BRO TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 8.8 4-3/4
12 11 NATURAL STORM B-/V2 A Atzeni · P F Yiu 1 65.0 10-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-06 was Class 2 over 1650m. CHILL CHIBI, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with FLAMINGO TRILLION second and TELECOM FIGHTERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHILL CHIBI—2. FLAMINGO TRILLION+0.5L3. TELECOM FIGHTERS+0.75L4. RED HARE KING+1.5L5. MR ASCENDENCY+1.75L6. KEEFY+2.5L7. CAPITAL DELIGHT+3.25L8. YELLOWFIN+3.75L9. STAR CONTACT+4L10. TURIN MASCOT+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick CAPITAL DELIGHT (19.8%) finished 7th — the winner CHILL CHIBI was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 CAPITAL DELIGHT 19.8% 5.05 7
2 6 CHILL CHIBI 17.9% 5.58 1
3 10 TURIN MASCOT 11.4% 8.81 10
4 7 FLAMINGO TRILLION 10.8% 9.24 2
5 5 YELLOWFIN 8.8% 11.32 8
6 9 RED HARE KING 8.2% 12.24 4
7 3 WOODFIRE BRO 6.5% 15.47 11
8 12 STAR CONTACT 5.9% 17.03 9
9 2 TELECOM FIGHTERS 3.3% 29.92 3
10 1 MR ASCENDENCY 3.2% 31.39 5
11 8 KEEFY 2.2% 46.37 6
12 11 NATURAL STORM 2.0% 48.87 12
CAPITAL DELIGHTCHILL CHIBI — wonTURIN MASCOTFLAMINGO TRILLIONYELLOWFINRED HARE KINGWOODFIRE BROSTAR CONTACTTELECOM FIGHTERSMR ASCENDENCYKEEFYNATURAL STORM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 24

PLACE

2 47.5

6 13.5

7 18.5

QUINELLA

6,7 80

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 98.5

2,7 155.5

6,7 38.5

FORECAST

6,7 140

TIERCE

6,7,2 1,654

TRIO

2,6,7 523

FIRST 4

2,6,7,9 667

QUARTET

6,7,2,9 10,535

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

11/2/6 3,385

11/2/7 417

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,11/2,6,7 35,273

8TH DOUBLE

2/6 383.5

2/7 63

SIX UP

3,10/4,8/5,8/5,11/2,11/6,7 1,071

10/8/5/11/2/6 2,556,262

8 [F C Lor] —

4 [K Teetan] —