Happy Valley · 2024-11-06
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-06 was Class 3 over 1200m. BRAVE STAR, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with GOKO WIN second and FULL CREDIT third. The 2.5 favourite AURORA LADY finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BRAVE STAR XB 1.09.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 8.1 | N |
| 2 | 11 | GOKO WIN B M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 2 | 7.4 | N |
| 3 | 1 | FULL CREDIT L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 1 | 7.6 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | LUCKY EIGHT C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 11 | 10.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | AURORA LADY CP/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 8 | 2.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | CHATEAUNEUF B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 10 | 7.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | POWER KOEPP B/E L Ferraris · K L Man | L Ferraris | K L Man | 12 | 158.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | O'LINER B-/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 5 | 52.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | NORDIC DRAGON B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 9 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL B/XB M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 7 | 26.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | PARTERRE B K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 4 | 125.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | RIDING HIGH TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 21.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | AURORA LADY | 24.5% | 4.08 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | FULL CREDIT | 19.0% | 5.27 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | CHATEAUNEUF | 18.5% | 5.39 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | BRAVE STAR | 8.5% | 11.70 | 1 |
| 5 | 11 | GOKO WIN | 6.5% | 15.50 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | NORDIC DRAGON | 5.9% | 16.85 | 9 |
| 7 | 6 | LUCKY EIGHT | 5.0% | 19.98 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | PARTERRE | 3.7% | 26.90 | 11 |
| 9 | 8 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 3.0% | 33.14 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | RIDING HIGH | 2.2% | 46.21 | 12 |
| 11 | 5 | POWER KOEPP | 1.8% | 54.28 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | O'LINER | 1.3% | 78.57 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 81
PLACE
1 19.5
2 24.5
11 25
QUINELLA
2,11 312
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 84.5
1,11 88
2,11 85.5
FORECAST
2,11 655
TIERCE
2,11,1 4,098
TRIO
1,2,11 676
FIRST 4
1,2,6,11 1,785
QUARTET
2,11,1,6 49,401
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
11/2 725.5
11/11 193.5