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Happy Valley · 2024-11-06

Race 7

Class 3 1800m Course A 11 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-06 was Class 3 over 1800m. WINNING STEPS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with CHAIN OF GOLD second and ROCKET SPADE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite CHAIN OF GOLD finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.48.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC 1.48.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng 8 10.0 N
2 5 CHAIN OF GOLD Closed strongly CP/H/TT Z Purton · W K Mo 2 4.0 N
3 6 ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly XB/TT A Badel · C Fownes 10 7.9 1-3/4
4 4 ILLUMINOUS Closed strongly V H Bowman · F C Lor 1 6.9 2-1/4
5 1 NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 5 7.4 2-1/4
6 7 FORTUNE SUPERSTAR L Hewitson · M Newnham 11 20.0 3
7 3 HAMERON XB- L Ferraris · K W Lui 3 14.0 3-1/2
8 10 RED MAJESTY Led early B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 7 11.0 3-3/4
9 9 QUANTUM PATCH B1/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 9 4.7 5-3/4
10 8 GOOD LUCK BABE XB/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 4 67.0 10-1/2
11 2 PACKING HURRICANE B/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 6 28.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING STEPS2. CHAIN OF GOLD+0.05L3. ROCKET SPADE+1.75L4. ILLUMINOUS+2.25L5. NOBLE PURSUIT+2.25L6. FORTUNE SUPERSTAR+3L7. HAMERON+3.5L8. RED MAJESTY+3.75L9. QUANTUM PATCH+5.75L10. GOOD LUCK BABE+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick CHAIN OF GOLD (25.3%) finished 2nd — the winner WINNING STEPS was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 CHAIN OF GOLD 25.3% 3.95 2
2 1 NOBLE PURSUIT 19.5% 5.14 5
3 4 ILLUMINOUS 13.5% 7.39 4
4 3 HAMERON 8.5% 11.82 7
5 6 ROCKET SPADE 8.1% 12.41 3
6 11 WINNING STEPS 6.5% 15.44 1
7 10 RED MAJESTY 6.4% 15.54 8
8 9 QUANTUM PATCH 5.6% 17.79 9
9 2 PACKING HURRICANE 3.4% 29.60 11
10 7 FORTUNE SUPERSTAR 2.7% 36.45 6
11 8 GOOD LUCK BABE 0.5% 187.71 10
CHAIN OF GOLDNOBLE PURSUITILLUMINOUSHAMERONROCKET SPADEWINNING STEPS — wonRED MAJESTYQUANTUM PATCHPACKING HURRICANEFORTUNE SUPERSTARGOOD LUCK BABE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 106.5

PLACE

5 17.5

6 23.5

11 29

QUINELLA

5,11 232.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 66.5

5,11 77

6,11 96.5

FORECAST

11,5 575

TIERCE

11,5,6 2,534

TRIO

5,6,11 397

FIRST 4

4,5,6,11 318

QUARTET

11,5,6,4 9,583

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,8/5,6,11 35,960

6TH DOUBLE

5/5 91

5/11 1,107.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,4,8/2,5,8/5,6,11 1,730,702

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,4,8/2,5,8/Any Combination 3,302