Sha Tin · 2025-01-12 · 06:10
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-12 was Class 4 over 1200m. DRAGON AIR FORCE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with VULCANUS second and NATURAL HIGH third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | DRAGON AIR FORCE TT 1.09.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 3 | 2.9 | N |
| 2 | 10 | VULCANUS Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 12 | 5.3 | N |
| 3 | 8 | NATURAL HIGH B P N Wong · D J Hall | P N Wong | D J Hall | 2 | 21.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | YEAH BUDDY H-/V-/CP1/TT M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 6 | 17.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | COLOURFUL WINNER CP M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 9 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | FUN N FUN TOGETHER K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 7 | 6.1 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | REGENT GLORY CP-/B2 A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 11 | 30.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | ROMAN CROWN B H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 8 | 9.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | NEBRASKAN PC K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 4 | 10.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 9 | KA YING WARRIOR CP/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 43.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | JOLLY COMPANION CP/TT E C W Wong · K L Man | E C W Wong | K L Man | 1 | 12.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | KING GLORIOSO B A Pouchin · D J Whyte | A Pouchin | D J Whyte | 10 | 106.0 | 12-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | DRAGON AIR FORCE | 20.4% | 4.90 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | VULCANUS | 14.0% | 7.16 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | JOLLY COMPANION | 11.4% | 8.80 | 11 |
| 4 | 4 | FUN N FUN TOGETHER | 10.9% | 9.14 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | NEBRASKAN | 10.1% | 9.92 | 9 |
| 6 | 1 | ROMAN CROWN | 9.6% | 10.43 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | COLOURFUL WINNER | 7.5% | 13.42 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | NATURAL HIGH | 6.3% | 15.83 | 3 |
| 9 | 9 | KA YING WARRIOR | 3.6% | 28.16 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | YEAH BUDDY | 2.8% | 35.36 | 4 |
| 11 | 11 | REGENT GLORY | 2.4% | 42.45 | 7 |
| 12 | 5 | KING GLORIOSO | 1.1% | 87.37 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 29.5
PLACE
3 13.5
8 56
10 17.5
QUINELLA
3,10 87
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 118
3,10 33
8,10 191.5
FORECAST
3,10 137
TIERCE
3,10,8 1,585
TRIO
3,8,10 463
FIRST 4
3,8,10,12 1,663
QUARTET
3,10,8,12 18,559
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
8/3 61.5
8/10 38