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Sha Tin · 2025-01-12 · 07:10

Race 5

Class 4 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-12 was Class 4 over 1400m. JUNEAU PRIDE, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by SH, with LUCKY FIONN second and CITY THUNDER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite LUCKY FIONN finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 JUNEAU PRIDE Closed strongly 1.21.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 2 3.7 SH
2 12 LUCKY FIONN Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 9 2.6 SH
3 2 CITY THUNDER Closed strongly TT Z Purton · W Y So 8 7.2 N
4 11 JOLLY JUMPER TT1 A Badel · T P Yung 4 58.0 1-1/2
5 14 PEARL OF PANG'S B M Chadwick · K L Man 12 10.0 2
6 10 FASHION LEGEND XB/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 1 8.3 3-1/4
7 1 MASTER TRILLION B K C Leung · F C Lor 14 15.0 4-1/2
8 9 SOMETHING JONAH Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall 5 159.0 5-1/2
9 13 CALIFORNIA STAR Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 62.0 5-3/4
10 4 ORIENTAL SMOKE Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 13 36.0 6
11 7 GENERAL SMART Closed strongly CP-/XB/B1/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 11 103.0 6-3/4
12 3 FATAL BLOW L Ferraris · M Newnham 3 23.0 7-3/4
13 8 QUICK QUICK WIN Led early M F Poon · P C Ng 7 131.0 9
14 6 BLING BLING GENIUS CP/XB A Pouchin · D J Whyte 10 94.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JUNEAU PRIDE2. LUCKY FIONN+0.1L3. CITY THUNDER+0.05L4. JOLLY JUMPER+1.5L5. PEARL OF PANG'S+2L6. FASHION LEGEND+3.25L7. MASTER TRILLION+4.5L8. SOMETHING JONAH+5.5L9. CALIFORNIA STAR+5.75L10. ORIENTAL SMOKE+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick CITY THUNDER (27.0%) finished 3rd — the winner JUNEAU PRIDE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 CITY THUNDER 27.0% 3.70 3
2 5 JUNEAU PRIDE 17.8% 5.60 1
3 12 LUCKY FIONN 16.9% 5.93 2
4 10 FASHION LEGEND 10.5% 9.52 6
5 1 MASTER TRILLION 6.7% 15.00 7
6 3 FATAL BLOW 5.0% 20.10 12
7 14 PEARL OF PANG'S 5.0% 20.16 5
8 4 ORIENTAL SMOKE 2.7% 36.63 10
9 13 CALIFORNIA STAR 2.5% 40.50 9
10 6 BLING BLING GENIUS 2.3% 43.38 14
11 9 SOMETHING JONAH 1.2% 80.72 8
12 11 JOLLY JUMPER 1.0% 98.86 4
13 8 QUICK QUICK WIN 0.8% 118.46 13
14 7 GENERAL SMART 0.6% 172.62 11
CITY THUNDERJUNEAU PRIDE — wonLUCKY FIONNFASHION LEGENDMASTER TRILLIONFATAL BLOWPEARL OF PANG'SORIENTAL SMOKECALIFORNIA STARBLING BLING GENIUSSOMETHING JONAHJOLLY JUMPERQUICK QUICK WINGENERAL SMART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 37

PLACE

2 24.5

5 15

12 12.5

QUINELLA

5,12 45.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 49

2,12 44

5,12 21.5

FORECAST

5,12 113

TIERCE

5,12,2 466

TRIO

2,5,12 88

FIRST 4

2,5,11,12 798

QUARTET

5,12,2,11 11,573

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

3/1/5 310

3/1/12 37

4TH DOUBLE

1/5 135.5

1/12 16.5