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Sha Tin · 2025-01-12 · 09:20

Race 9

Class 3 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-12 was Class 3 over 1600m. DRAGON JOY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with MARKWIN second and FAST NETWORK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite MARKWIN finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.34.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 DRAGON JOY Closed strongly SR/TT 1.34.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P F Yiu 14 9.8 SH
2 6 MARKWIN Closed strongly TT K C Leung · W K Mo 1 2.7 SH
3 2 FAST NETWORK Closed strongly B-/TT Z Purton · C H Yip 3 6.4 1/2
4 11 SKY HEART Led early B-/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 6 22.0 3/4
5 8 SILVERY BREEZE Closed strongly B1/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 11 12.0 3/4
6 1 MICKLEY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · J Size 8 5.9 1-1/4
7 12 BEAUTY VIVA A Atzeni · P C Ng 10 116.0 1-1/2
8 9 STORM RIDER B Thompson · D A Hayes 2 27.0 2-3/4
9 10 FORTUNATE SON Closed strongly CP-/XB-/SR1/TT- L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 46.0 2-3/4
10 13 MIDORI GIANT A Badel · M Newnham 4 37.0 3
11 3 TOP GUN CP1 M Chadwick · F C Lor 5 27.0 3-1/4
12 5 STEPS AHEAD C L Chau · K W Lui 12 7.0 3-1/2
13 7 KING MILES Closed strongly A Pouchin · K W Lui 13 58.0 3-3/4
14 4 HELENE WARRIOR XB/TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 7 107.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON JOY2. MARKWIN+0.1L3. FAST NETWORK+0.5L4. SKY HEART+0.75L5. SILVERY BREEZE+0.75L6. MICKLEY+1.25L7. BEAUTY VIVA+1.5L8. STORM RIDER+2.75L9. FORTUNATE SON+2.75L10. MIDORI GIANT+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MARKWIN (32.9%) finished 2nd — the winner DRAGON JOY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 MARKWIN 32.9% 3.04 2
2 2 FAST NETWORK 21.3% 4.70 3
3 5 STEPS AHEAD 11.1% 9.00 12
4 1 MICKLEY 6.8% 14.70 6
5 8 SILVERY BREEZE 5.2% 19.14 5
6 14 DRAGON JOY 5.1% 19.54 1
7 11 SKY HEART 2.9% 34.04 4
8 13 MIDORI GIANT 2.9% 34.62 10
9 7 KING MILES 2.7% 37.17 13
10 9 STORM RIDER 2.5% 40.26 8
11 3 TOP GUN 2.4% 41.23 11
12 4 HELENE WARRIOR 1.7% 57.35 14
13 12 BEAUTY VIVA 1.3% 78.99 7
14 10 FORTUNATE SON 1.2% 85.74 9
MARKWINFAST NETWORKSTEPS AHEADMICKLEYSILVERY BREEZEDRAGON JOY — wonSKY HEARTMIDORI GIANTKING MILESSTORM RIDERTOP GUNHELENE WARRIORBEAUTY VIVAFORTUNATE SON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 98

PLACE

2 24.5

6 13.5

14 31.5

QUINELLA

6,14 167

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 39.5

2,14 156

6,14 64.5

FORECAST

14,6 381

TIERCE

14,6,2 3,738

TRIO

2,6,14 466

FIRST 4

2,6,11,14 1,482

QUARTET

14,6,2,11 39,980

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

6/6 10.5

6/14 313