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Sha Tin · 2025-01-12 · 05:35

Race 2

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-12 was Class 4 over 1200m. DRAGON FOUR SEAS, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K L Man, won by 3/4, with SOLAR RIVER second and JOYFUL TREASURE third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 DRAGON FOUR SEAS B 1.10.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K L Man 4 1.9 3/4
2 9 SOLAR RIVER V-/CP1/TT C L Chau · K H Ting 1 17.0 3/4
3 4 JOYFUL TREASURE XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 3 14.0 2
4 1 POSITIVE SMILE M L Yeung · D A Hayes 2 12.0 2-1/4
5 2 GROOVY FEELING TT B Thompson · J Richards 10 8.1 2-1/2
6 5 VIEW ALL THINGS K Teetan · Y S Tsui 7 23.0 2-3/4
7 12 PERFECT PEACH P-/B2/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang 8 40.0 2-3/4
8 3 INNO CENTURY Z Purton · W Y So 11 7.5 3
9 11 CAMP FIRE SR/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 6 49.0 3-1/2
10 7 LITTLE SQUID H T Mo · P F Yiu 5 56.0 4-1/2
11 10 TACTICAL COMMAND B E C W Wong · M Newnham 12 25.0 5
12 6 ROBOT KNIGHT TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 9 12.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON FOUR SEAS2. SOLAR RIVER+0.75L3. JOYFUL TREASURE+2L4. POSITIVE SMILE+2.25L5. GROOVY FEELING+2.5L6. VIEW ALL THINGS+2.75L7. PERFECT PEACH+2.75L8. INNO CENTURY+3L9. CAMP FIRE+3.5L10. LITTLE SQUID+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick INNO CENTURY (25.2%) finished 8th — the winner DRAGON FOUR SEAS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 INNO CENTURY 25.2% 3.97 8
2 8 DRAGON FOUR SEAS 24.5% 4.07 1
3 6 ROBOT KNIGHT 11.8% 8.50 12
4 1 POSITIVE SMILE 8.0% 12.49 4
5 2 GROOVY FEELING 7.8% 12.78 5
6 5 VIEW ALL THINGS 5.4% 18.49 6
7 4 JOYFUL TREASURE 5.1% 19.46 3
8 10 TACTICAL COMMAND 4.4% 22.54 11
9 9 SOLAR RIVER 2.9% 34.16 2
10 11 CAMP FIRE 2.2% 44.90 9
11 12 PERFECT PEACH 1.8% 55.53 7
12 7 LITTLE SQUID 0.7% 136.41 10
INNO CENTURYDRAGON FOUR SEAS — wonROBOT KNIGHTPOSITIVE SMILEGROOVY FEELINGVIEW ALL THINGSJOYFUL TREASURETACTICAL COMMANDSOLAR RIVERCAMP FIREPERFECT PEACHLITTLE SQUID

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 19

PLACE

4 32.5

8 12.5

9 34.5

QUINELLA

8,9 148.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 41.5

4,9 244

8,9 58

FORECAST

8,9 220

TIERCE

8,9,4 1,586

TRIO

4,8,9 452

FIRST 4

1,4,8,9 698

QUARTET

8,9,4,1 10,914

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/8 189

7/9 134

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,11/4,8,9 33,760