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Sha Tin · 2025-03-26 · 11:50

Race 3

Class 4 1650m 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-26 was Class 4 over 1650m. CHILL KAKA, ridden by R Kingscote and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3-3/4, with RUN RUN TIMING second and PHANTOM CYCLONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.38.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 CHILL KAKA Closed strongly V 1.38.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Kingscote · P F Yiu 9 4.4 3-3/4
2 8 RUN RUN TIMING Led early B-/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 1 5.5 3-3/4
3 11 PHANTOM CYCLONE Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · T P Yung 2 79.0 4-1/2
4 1 THESIS Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · Y S Tsui 10 9.2 4-3/4
5 3 VON BAER Closed strongly B Thompson · D A Hayes 5 19.0 5-1/2
6 13 PERFECT PAIRING Closed strongly B-/PC2/TT1 A Hamelin · J Size 8 32.0 6-1/4
7 10 LUCKY IMPACT Closed strongly CP- M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 12.0 6-1/2
8 12 APOLAR FIGHTER Closed strongly B-/PC1/TT K Teetan · D Eustace 12 26.0 7-3/4
9 9 SPANGLE FORTUNE B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 11 8.0 9-3/4
10 6 THE WAY WE WIN Closed strongly B-/PC1/TT D McDonogh · J Richards 4 180.0 10
11 2 SHANGHAI STYLE B P N Wong · C S Shum 14 6.6 10-1/4
12 4 ROMAN CROWN B/TT1 J Orman · P C Ng 7 23.0 10-3/4
13 14 ALL EYES ON ME B- M L Yeung · C W Chang 3 61.0 15
14 7 LUCKY BANNER TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 13 6.8 17

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHILL KAKA2. RUN RUN TIMING+3.75L3. PHANTOM CYCLONE+4.5L4. THESIS+4.75L5. VON BAER+5.5L6. PERFECT PAIRING+6.25L7. LUCKY IMPACT+6.5L8. APOLAR FIGHTER+7.75L9. SPANGLE FORTUNE+9.75L10. THE WAY WE WIN+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SHANGHAI STYLE (18.5%) finished 11th — the winner CHILL KAKA was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SHANGHAI STYLE 18.5% 5.39 11
2 1 THESIS 17.3% 5.80 4
3 5 CHILL KAKA 11.3% 8.85 1
4 8 RUN RUN TIMING 9.5% 10.48 2
5 7 LUCKY BANNER 8.2% 12.19 14
6 4 ROMAN CROWN 8.1% 12.40 12
7 13 PERFECT PAIRING 8.0% 12.57 6
8 9 SPANGLE FORTUNE 5.0% 20.08 9
9 10 LUCKY IMPACT 4.1% 24.55 7
10 12 APOLAR FIGHTER 4.0% 25.21 8
11 3 VON BAER 2.1% 47.47 5
12 11 PHANTOM CYCLONE 2.0% 50.23 3
13 6 THE WAY WE WIN 1.1% 88.49 10
14 14 ALL EYES ON ME 0.9% 112.20 13
SHANGHAI STYLETHESISCHILL KAKA — wonRUN RUN TIMINGLUCKY BANNERROMAN CROWNPERFECT PAIRINGSPANGLE FORTUNELUCKY IMPACTAPOLAR FIGHTERVON BAERPHANTOM CYCLONETHE WAY WE WINALL EYES ON ME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 44.5

PLACE

5 18.5

8 21.5

11 162

QUINELLA

5,8 155

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 63

5,11 520

8,11 498

FORECAST

5,8 360

TIERCE

5,8,11 13,251

TRIO

5,8,11 3,052

FIRST 4

1,5,8,11 4,962

QUARTET

5,8,11,1 105,293

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,8,9/5,8,11 97,478

2ND DOUBLE

5/5 254.5

5/8 66