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Sha Tin · 2025-03-30 · 06:45

Race 1

Class 4 2000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-30 was Class 4 over 2000m. MIGHTY STRENGTH, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with MANAGEMENT FOLKS second and ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite MISSION STRIKE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 2.02.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 MIGHTY STRENGTH Closed strongly B 2.02.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P F Yiu 4 5.8 3/4
2 14 MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly V K Teetan · D J Hall 5 8.2 3/4
3 9 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT Closed strongly CP-/B1/TT B Thompson · J Richards 11 103.0 1-1/4
4 10 FIREFOOT TT J Orman · W Y So 10 50.0 1-3/4
5 5 MISSION STRIKE Closed strongly L Ferraris · M Newnham 2 3.4 2-3/4
6 13 YOUTH POWER Led early CP-/B2/TT D McDonogh · D A Hayes 1 33.0 3
7 2 VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B Z Purton · P F Yiu 6 8.5 3
8 1 JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 14 37.0 4-3/4
9 8 GALE SAGA B A Atzeni · P C Ng 3 20.0 5-3/4
10 12 KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT A Badel · A S Cruz 12 16.0 6-1/4
11 3 SERANGOON CP/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 8 20.0 7-1/2
12 6 ACE WAR H Bowman · D J Whyte 7 10.0 7-1/2
13 11 GOOD GOOD B-/V1 B Avdulla · J Size 9 6.8 10-1/2
14 7 AFFORDABLE B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 13 45.0 19-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MIGHTY STRENGTH2. MANAGEMENT FOLKS+0.75L3. ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT+1.25L4. FIREFOOT+1.75L5. MISSION STRIKE+2.75L6. YOUTH POWER+3L7. VOLCANIC SPARK+3L8. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+4.75L9. GALE SAGA+5.75L10. KASA PAPA+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick VOLCANIC SPARK (23.3%) finished 7th — the winner MIGHTY STRENGTH was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 VOLCANIC SPARK 23.3% 4.29 7
2 11 GOOD GOOD 11.6% 8.61 13
3 5 MISSION STRIKE 11.6% 8.66 5
4 8 GALE SAGA 8.5% 11.77 9
5 14 MANAGEMENT FOLKS 8.1% 12.30 2
6 6 ACE WAR 6.9% 14.59 12
7 4 MIGHTY STRENGTH 6.4% 15.56 1
8 12 KASA PAPA 5.6% 17.94 10
9 13 YOUTH POWER 4.8% 20.72 6
10 3 SERANGOON 3.8% 26.61 11
11 1 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 2.9% 34.29 8
12 10 FIREFOOT 2.9% 34.85 4
13 7 AFFORDABLE 2.4% 40.96 14
14 9 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT 1.2% 81.35 3
VOLCANIC SPARKGOOD GOODMISSION STRIKEGALE SAGAMANAGEMENT FOLKSACE WARMIGHTY STRENGTH — wonKASA PAPAYOUTH POWERSERANGOONJOYFUL PROSPERITYFIREFOOTAFFORDABLEROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 58

PLACE

4 20.5

9 257.5

14 22

QUINELLA

4,14 251

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 1,001

4,14 80.5

9,14 1,248.5

FORECAST

4,14 479

TIERCE

4,14,9 45,765

TRIO

4,9,14 8,823

FIRST 4

4,9,10,14 48,014

QUARTET

4,14,9,10 451,516