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Sha Tin · 2025-03-30 · 07:50

Race 6

Class 3 1000m Course A+3 11 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-30 was Class 3 over 1000m. LA FORZA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 1-1/4, with CIRCUIT JOLLY second and AURORA PATCH third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 LA FORZA B/TT 0.56.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 9 2.5 1-1/4
2 11 CIRCUIT JOLLY B K Teetan · D A Hayes 3 8.5 1-1/4
3 10 AURORA PATCH V M F Poon · P C Ng 8 10.0 2
4 12 NORTHERN BEACHES CP H Bentley · W Y So 2 26.0 2-3/4
5 8 STAR PERFORMER L Ferraris · M Newnham 7 14.0 3-1/4
6 3 FAST RESPONDER SR J Orman · D J Whyte 10 41.0 3-1/4
7 1 HORSEPOWER XB/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 1 3.5 3-1/2
8 4 SUPER FORTUNE TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 4 9.7 3-1/2
9 2 PACKING BOLE CP/TT P N Wong · C S Shum 5 18.0 4-1/2
10 7 FLYING TING LOK M L Yeung · K L Man 11 47.0 4-3/4
11 6 MARVEL AND GOLD H1/TT1 Y L Chung · C H Yip 6 86.0 7-3/4
9 CARROLL STREET K De Melo · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LA FORZA2. CIRCUIT JOLLY+1.25L3. AURORA PATCH+2L4. NORTHERN BEACHES+2.75L5. STAR PERFORMER+3.25L6. FAST RESPONDER+3.25L7. HORSEPOWER+3.5L8. SUPER FORTUNE+3.5L9. PACKING BOLE+4.5L10. FLYING TING LOK+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick HORSEPOWER (43.6%) finished 7th — the winner LA FORZA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 HORSEPOWER 43.6% 2.29 7
2 5 LA FORZA 21.4% 4.68 1
3 11 CIRCUIT JOLLY 7.2% 13.83 2
4 2 PACKING BOLE 5.7% 17.39 9
5 4 SUPER FORTUNE 5.7% 17.53 8
6 10 AURORA PATCH 5.3% 18.70 3
7 8 STAR PERFORMER 2.9% 34.23 5
8 12 NORTHERN BEACHES 2.5% 40.67 4
9 6 MARVEL AND GOLD 2.3% 44.00 11
10 3 FAST RESPONDER 2.1% 48.17 6
11 7 FLYING TING LOK 1.3% 77.05 10
HORSEPOWERLA FORZA — wonCIRCUIT JOLLYPACKING BOLESUPER FORTUNEAURORA PATCHSTAR PERFORMERNORTHERN BEACHESMARVEL AND GOLDFAST RESPONDERFLYING TING LOK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 25

PLACE

5 14

10 26.5

11 20

QUINELLA

5,11 92.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,10 43

5,11 34.5

10,11 86.5

FORECAST

5,11 147

TIERCE

5,11,10 821

TRIO

5,10,11 233

FIRST 4

5,10,11,12 1,031

QUARTET

5,11,10,12 11,279

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,8,10/5,10,11 192,654

5TH DOUBLE

8/5 1,160.5

8/11 542.5

TRIPLE TRIO

4,8,11/3,8,10/5,10,11 1,505,833

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,8,11/3,8,10/Any Combination 19,476