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Sha Tin · 2025-04-20 · 07:15

Race 5

Class 4 1650m 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-04-20 was Class 4 over 1650m. CHILL KAKA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with SPANGLE FORTUNE second and FOREVER FOLKS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.38.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CHILL KAKA Closed strongly V 1.38.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu 10 2.2 1/2
2 11 SPANGLE FORTUNE B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 7 39.0 1/2
3 4 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B Thompson · C W Chang 4 8.8 3/4
4 13 LUCKY IMPACT Closed strongly M Chadwick · F C Lor 9 34.0 1
5 3 FASHION LEGEND A Atzeni · D Eustace 12 9.5 2
6 9 VIVA CHALEUR Closed strongly H/PC2/TT A Badel · P C Ng 11 13.0 2-3/4
7 8 RUN RUN TIMING TT H Bentley · C H Yip 1 6.3 3
8 2 PRECISION GOAL Led early BO1/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes 6 10.0 3-1/4
9 14 YOUNG HORIZON CP-/H2 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 2 62.0 4-1/4
10 6 ALL ARE MINE Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 14 65.0 4-3/4
11 10 LUCKY BANNER TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 8 27.0 5
12 5 VULCANUS K Teetan · Y S Tsui 13 25.0 7-1/4
13 12 PHANTOM CYCLONE B/TT Y L Chung · T P Yung 5 35.0 9
14 7 GALLANT CROWN B-/P1/TT P N Wong · D A Hayes 3 37.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHILL KAKA2. SPANGLE FORTUNE+0.5L3. FOREVER FOLKS+0.75L4. LUCKY IMPACT+1L5. FASHION LEGEND+2L6. VIVA CHALEUR+2.75L7. RUN RUN TIMING+3L8. PRECISION GOAL+3.25L9. YOUNG HORIZON+4.25L10. ALL ARE MINE+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick CHILL KAKA (29.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CHILL KAKA 29.6% 3.38 1
2 2 PRECISION GOAL 15.3% 6.55 8
3 8 RUN RUN TIMING 11.7% 8.54 7
4 3 FASHION LEGEND 5.7% 17.60 5
5 9 VIVA CHALEUR 5.0% 20.13 6
6 4 FOREVER FOLKS 4.6% 21.53 3
7 11 SPANGLE FORTUNE 4.4% 22.76 2
8 7 GALLANT CROWN 4.2% 23.87 14
9 13 LUCKY IMPACT 3.6% 27.91 4
10 12 PHANTOM CYCLONE 3.5% 28.29 13
11 5 VULCANUS 3.5% 28.79 12
12 6 ALL ARE MINE 3.4% 29.31 10
13 14 YOUNG HORIZON 3.0% 33.62 9
14 10 LUCKY BANNER 2.6% 38.94 11
CHILL KAKA — wonPRECISION GOALRUN RUN TIMINGFASHION LEGENDVIVA CHALEURFOREVER FOLKSSPANGLE FORTUNEGALLANT CROWNLUCKY IMPACTPHANTOM CYCLONEVULCANUSALL ARE MINEYOUNG HORIZONLUCKY BANNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 22.5

PLACE

1 13.5

4 26.5

11 77.5

QUINELLA

1,11 436

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 57

1,11 167

4,11 326.5

FORECAST

1,11 496

TIERCE

1,11,4 3,679

TRIO

1,4,11 1,151

FIRST 4

1,4,11,13 5,246

QUARTET

1,11,4,13 58,652

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/6/1 916

1/6/11 6,450

4TH DOUBLE

6/1 222.5

6/11 1,198.5