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Happy Valley · 2025-05-14 · 11:45

Race 3

Class 4 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-05-14 was Class 4 over 1650m. SURE JOYFUL, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with MIDORI FUJI second and FOREVER GLORIOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite COURIER MAGIC finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.39.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SURE JOYFUL Closed strongly TT 1.39.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P F Yiu 3 10.0 SH
2 5 MIDORI FUJI Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · D Eustace 10 4.1 SH
3 3 FOREVER GLORIOUS Closed strongly V/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 8 34.0 1-1/4
4 4 OUR LUCKY GLORY Closed strongly TT H Bentley · W Y So 5 28.0 2
5 12 COURIER MAGIC B-/XB/CP2 A Badel · K L Man 2 2.8 2-1/4
6 10 SUPER SICARIO H K De Melo · C Fownes 7 16.0 2-1/2
7 7 PERPETUAL POWER Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung 9 146.0 3
8 1 SUNDAY'S SERENADE Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · J Richards 12 4.9 3-3/4
9 11 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM Led early H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 15.0 7-1/2
10 8 SUNNY DARLING B/TT E C W Wong · P C Ng 6 45.0 7-3/4
11 9 WAH MAY WAI WAI Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 11.0 20
12 6 BEAU CADEAU B/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 4 162.0 22-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SURE JOYFUL2. MIDORI FUJI+0.1L3. FOREVER GLORIOUS+1.25L4. OUR LUCKY GLORY+2L5. COURIER MAGIC+2.25L6. SUPER SICARIO+2.5L7. PERPETUAL POWER+3L8. SUNDAY'S SERENADE+3.75L9. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM+7.5L10. SUNNY DARLING+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick COURIER MAGIC (24.2%) finished 5th — the winner SURE JOYFUL was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 COURIER MAGIC 24.2% 4.14 5
2 5 MIDORI FUJI 23.2% 4.32 2
3 1 SUNDAY'S SERENADE 19.0% 5.28 8
4 9 WAH MAY WAI WAI 7.0% 14.32 11
5 2 SURE JOYFUL 6.7% 14.96 1
6 4 OUR LUCKY GLORY 6.6% 15.12 4
7 3 FOREVER GLORIOUS 5.0% 20.13 3
8 8 SUNNY DARLING 3.5% 28.45 10
9 10 SUPER SICARIO 1.9% 53.97 6
10 11 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 1.6% 61.08 9
11 7 PERPETUAL POWER 0.7% 136.63 7
12 6 BEAU CADEAU 0.7% 138.82 12
COURIER MAGICMIDORI FUJISUNDAY'S SERENADEWAH MAY WAI WAISURE JOYFUL — wonOUR LUCKY GLORYFOREVER GLORIOUSSUNNY DARLINGSUPER SICARIOARTHUR'S KINGDOMPERPETUAL POWERBEAU CADEAU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 104.5

PLACE

2 26

3 72.5

5 16.5

QUINELLA

2,5 186.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 250

2,5 61

3,5 206.5

FORECAST

2,5 440

TIERCE

2,5,3 6,080

TRIO

2,3,5 982

FIRST 4

2,3,4,5 2,720

QUARTET

2,5,3,4 54,765

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,4/2,3,5 17,858

2ND DOUBLE

4/2 167

4/5 16