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Happy Valley · 2025-05-14 · 12:45

Race 5

Class 4 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-05-14 was Class 4 over 1200m. KING LOTUS, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by M Newnham, won by N, with GALAXY WITNESS second and FORTUNE WHISKEY third. The 2.7 favourite GALAXY WITNESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 KING LOTUS 1.09.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · M Newnham 6 29.0 N
2 1 GALAXY WITNESS B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 5 2.7 N
3 3 FORTUNE WHISKEY B-/TT M F Poon · D Eustace 7 10.0 1-1/4
4 4 SIGHT HAPPY CP Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 6.9 1-1/4
5 5 MEGA BONUS V L Ferraris · P F Yiu 11 13.0 3
6 11 NEW POWER A Hamelin · C W Chang 3 2.7 3-3/4
7 8 VICTOR THE RAPID B/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 10 36.0 5-3/4
8 12 SANTORINI V A Badel · F C Lor 2 26.0 6
9 9 RISING PHOENIX B1 A Atzeni · D J Hall 9 20.0 7
10 6 CASA RUBICK CP-/B1/TT B Thompson · J Richards 1 176.0 8
11 10 CHAMPION METHOD B M Chadwick · C S Shum 8 81.0 8-1/2
12 2 FREE PONY H C L Chau · T P Yung 12 131.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING LOTUS2. GALAXY WITNESS+0.05L3. FORTUNE WHISKEY+1.25L4. SIGHT HAPPY+1.25L5. MEGA BONUS+3L6. NEW POWER+3.75L7. VICTOR THE RAPID+5.75L8. SANTORINI+6L9. RISING PHOENIX+7L10. CASA RUBICK+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SIGHT HAPPY (27.2%) finished 4th — the winner KING LOTUS was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SIGHT HAPPY 27.2% 3.68 4
2 11 NEW POWER 23.6% 4.24 6
3 1 GALAXY WITNESS 18.3% 5.47 2
4 5 MEGA BONUS 9.0% 11.11 5
5 9 RISING PHOENIX 6.0% 16.75 9
6 3 FORTUNE WHISKEY 5.2% 19.32 3
7 7 KING LOTUS 2.5% 40.13 1
8 2 FREE PONY 2.5% 40.35 12
9 12 SANTORINI 2.0% 50.88 8
10 10 CHAMPION METHOD 1.7% 58.60 11
11 8 VICTOR THE RAPID 1.6% 60.76 7
12 6 CASA RUBICK 0.5% 187.79 10
SIGHT HAPPYNEW POWERGALAXY WITNESSMEGA BONUSRISING PHOENIXFORTUNE WHISKEYKING LOTUS — wonFREE PONYSANTORINICHAMPION METHODVICTOR THE RAPIDCASA RUBICK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 297

PLACE

1 10.5

3 26.5

7 67

QUINELLA

1,7 326

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 41

1,7 95

3,7 277.5

FORECAST

7,1 1,013

TIERCE

7,1,3 6,460

TRIO

1,3,7 889

FIRST 4

1,3,4,7 1,100

QUARTET

7,1,3,4 36,748

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

2/4/1 163

2/4/7 4,498

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,6/1,3,7 8,468

4TH DOUBLE

4/1 22.5

4/7 771