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Happy Valley · 2025-05-14 · 14:20

Race 8

Class 3 1800m Course B 11 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2025-05-14 was Class 3 over 1800m. CAMBRIDGE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by P C Ng, won by 1/2, with EXCELLENCE VALUE second and SAMARKAND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite JOY OF SPRING finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.49.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 CAMBRIDGE Closed strongly XB/TT 1.49.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · P C Ng 7 25.0 1/2
2 3 EXCELLENCE VALUE Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 2 2.8 1/2
3 7 SAMARKAND Led early CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 10 16.0 1-1/4
4 8 JOY OF SPRING Closed strongly TT A Badel · C Fownes 1 2.5 2-1/2
5 9 CHAIN OF GOLD Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo 4 10.0 3
6 1 MONEY CATCHER B- M F Poon · F C Lor 6 15.0 3
7 2 ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly XB/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 11 14.0 3-1/4
8 6 LUCK IS BACK Closed strongly CP/TT K De Melo · K W Lui 5 53.0 3-3/4
9 10 LEAN HERO B/XB/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 9 19.0 4-1/4
10 4 LOVERO TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 20.0 5-1/4
11 11 WITHOUT DELAY SR-/E1/TT B Thompson · D Eustace 8 167.0 5-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CAMBRIDGE2. EXCELLENCE VALUE+0.5L3. SAMARKAND+1.25L4. JOY OF SPRING+2.5L5. CHAIN OF GOLD+3L6. MONEY CATCHER+3L7. ROCKET SPADE+3.25L8. LUCK IS BACK+3.75L9. LEAN HERO+4.25L10. LOVERO+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick EXCELLENCE VALUE (33.0%) finished 2nd — the winner CAMBRIDGE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 EXCELLENCE VALUE 33.0% 3.03 2
2 8 JOY OF SPRING 16.2% 6.18 4
3 1 MONEY CATCHER 13.3% 7.51 6
4 2 ROCKET SPADE 7.8% 12.75 7
5 9 CHAIN OF GOLD 7.6% 13.08 5
6 4 LOVERO 6.9% 14.39 10
7 10 LEAN HERO 6.0% 16.54 9
8 7 SAMARKAND 4.6% 21.66 3
9 5 CAMBRIDGE 2.5% 39.28 1
10 6 LUCK IS BACK 1.2% 82.27 8
11 11 WITHOUT DELAY 0.6% 159.71 11
EXCELLENCE VALUEJOY OF SPRINGMONEY CATCHERROCKET SPADECHAIN OF GOLDLOVEROLEAN HEROSAMARKANDCAMBRIDGE — wonLUCK IS BACKWITHOUT DELAY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 253.5

PLACE

3 12

5 59

7 39

QUINELLA

3,5 451.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 127

3,7 74.5

5,7 366

FORECAST

5,3 1,302

TIERCE

5,3,7 16,475

TRIO

3,5,7 1,883

FIRST 4

3,5,7,8 704

QUARTET

5,3,7,8 33,658

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

1/3 115.5

1/5 5,279.5