Sha Tin · 2025-05-18 · 14:18
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ORIENTAL SMOKE Closed strongly B/TT 1.47.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 5 | 3.0 | N |
| 2 | 8 | DOUBLE WIN Closed strongly B/XB/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 13 | 14.0 | N |
| 3 | 11 | KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 12 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B H Bowman · P F Yiu | H Bowman | P F Yiu | 2 | 4.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | FIREFOOT Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 6 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · C H Yip | L Hewitson | C H Yip | 3 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | ACE WAR Closed strongly L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 10 | 36.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | GALE SAGA B/TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 1 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 13 | ALL ARE MINE Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 8 | 26.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 14 | ESCAPE ROUTE H H T Mo · J Size | H T Mo | J Size | 11 | 36.0 | 12 |
| 11 | 1 | NORTHERN BEAST V J Orman · D J Hall | J Orman | D J Hall | 4 | 34.0 | 13 |
| 12 | 3 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 9 | 33.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 13 | 5 | YOUTH POWER B/TT P N Wong · D A Hayes | P N Wong | D A Hayes | 7 | 7.7 | 17 |
| 14 | 12 | MUSANG KING Led early B/TT1 B Thompson · F C Lor | B Thompson | F C Lor | 14 | 121.0 | 19 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-18 was Class 4 over 1800m. ORIENTAL SMOKE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with DOUBLE WIN second and KASA PAPA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 21.8% | 4.58 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | VOLCANIC SPARK | 15.4% | 6.50 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | FIREFOOT | 14.7% | 6.82 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | YOUTH POWER | 10.5% | 9.52 | 13 |
| 5 | 10 | S J TOURBILLON | 6.2% | 16.22 | 6 |
| 6 | 11 | KASA PAPA | 5.4% | 18.36 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | DOUBLE WIN | 4.9% | 20.54 | 2 |
| 8 | 13 | ALL ARE MINE | 4.4% | 22.64 | 9 |
| 9 | 1 | NORTHERN BEAST | 3.4% | 29.52 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | GALE SAGA | 3.4% | 29.59 | 8 |
| 11 | 14 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 3.4% | 29.78 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | ACE WAR | 3.1% | 31.92 | 7 |
| 13 | 3 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY | 2.6% | 38.90 | 12 |
| 14 | 12 | MUSANG KING | 0.9% | 111.31 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 30.5
PLACE
2 14
8 45.5
11 34
QUINELLA
2,8 265
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 100.5
2,11 78.5
8,11 296
FORECAST
2,8 432
TIERCE
2,8,11 3,613
TRIO
2,8,11 1,115
FIRST 4
2,4,8,11 1,077
QUARTET
2,8,11,4 20,642
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,10/2,8,11 10,975
3RD DOUBLE
6/2 273.5
6/8 193