Sha Tin · 2025-05-18 · 05:20
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-18 was Class 5 over 1200m. PATCH OF WATCH, ridden by P N Wong and trained by K L Man, won by 2, with HINOKAMI KAGURA second and DOUBLE BINGO third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | PATCH OF WATCH B/TT 1.09.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) P N Wong · K L Man | P N Wong | K L Man | 9 | 2.8 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | HINOKAMI KAGURA BO M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 2 | 6.4 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | DOUBLE BINGO P2 M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 4 | 35.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | FALCON COURT V/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 5 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | SUPERB MOVE B/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 3 | 55.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | LUCKY GENERATIONS H-/P-/PC1/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 12 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | EXCELLENT DADDY CP/TT L Ferraris · T P Yung | L Ferraris | T P Yung | 7 | 18.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | CHEER FOR SOUTH PC A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 8 | 3.3 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | SPEEDY FORTUNE CP/TT K C Leung · D Eustace | K C Leung | D Eustace | 1 | 21.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | TALENTS SUPREMO V/TT J Orman · W K Mo | J Orman | W K Mo | 6 | 50.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | THE CONCENTRATION PC/TT C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 10 | 18.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | GLORIOUS EXPERT P L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 11 | 88.0 | 10-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | CHEER FOR SOUTH | 22.7% | 4.41 | 8 |
| 2 | 9 | PATCH OF WATCH | 22.4% | 4.47 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | HINOKAMI KAGURA | 20.9% | 4.78 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | TALENTS SUPREMO | 5.4% | 18.67 | 10 |
| 5 | 3 | THE CONCENTRATION | 5.2% | 19.05 | 11 |
| 6 | 1 | EXCELLENT DADDY | 4.4% | 22.57 | 7 |
| 7 | 8 | FALCON COURT | 4.3% | 23.29 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | SPEEDY FORTUNE | 4.0% | 25.06 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | SUPERB MOVE | 3.6% | 27.86 | 5 |
| 10 | 5 | LUCKY GENERATIONS | 3.4% | 29.60 | 6 |
| 11 | 11 | DOUBLE BINGO | 2.2% | 44.84 | 3 |
| 12 | 4 | GLORIOUS EXPERT | 1.5% | 65.86 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 28.5
PLACE
2 20
9 12.5
11 72.5
QUINELLA
2,9 111.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 42.5
2,11 280.5
9,11 135
FORECAST
9,2 184
TIERCE
9,2,11 3,258
TRIO
2,9,11 907
FIRST 4
2,8,9,11 2,192
QUARTET
9,2,11,8 30,213
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
12/2 59
12/9 163.5
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,6,12/2,9,11 44,926