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Sha Tin · 2025-05-18 · 09:55

Race 10

Class 3 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-18 was Class 3 over 1600m. WINNING GOLD, ridden by J Orman and trained by W Y So, won by 3/4, with MORGAN SUCCESS second and HUGE WAVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite DEFINITIVE finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.34.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 WINNING GOLD Closed strongly TT 1.34.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · W Y So 10 12.0 3/4
2 14 MORGAN SUCCESS Closed strongly XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 5.2 3/4
3 2 HUGE WAVE Closed strongly TT H Bowman · K H Ting 11 8.0 1-1/4
4 11 MAGNIFICENT NINE Closed strongly B/E A Badel · J Size 3 4.5 3
5 5 ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · W K Mo 9 67.0 3-1/4
6 1 TOURBILLON PRINCE TT P N Wong · T P Yung 1 12.0 3-1/4
7 6 SUPERB KID Closed strongly CP L Ferraris · K W Lui 12 74.0 3-1/2
8 13 MEGA FORCE K C Leung · P C Ng 7 73.0 4-1/4
9 7 STAR MAC B/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes 4 7.9 4-3/4
10 9 DEFINITIVE Led early B/TT Z Purton · D Eustace 5 4.2 5
11 10 SUPREME AGILITY TT M Chadwick · P C Ng 2 30.0 5-1/4
12 4 NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 14 92.0 6-3/4
13 12 CHING B- M F Poon · C W Chang 13 23.0 8-1/2
14 3 OUTGATE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 41.0 10-1/4
0 THE BEST PEACH B Thompson · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING GOLD2. MORGAN SUCCESS+0.75L3. HUGE WAVE+1.25L4. MAGNIFICENT NINE+3L5. ROMANTIC LAOS+3.25L6. TOURBILLON PRINCE+3.25L7. SUPERB KID+3.5L8. MEGA FORCE+4.25L9. STAR MAC+4.75L10. DEFINITIVE+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick DEFINITIVE (26.9%) finished 10th — the winner WINNING GOLD was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 DEFINITIVE 26.9% 3.72 10
2 11 MAGNIFICENT NINE 15.6% 6.40 4
3 14 MORGAN SUCCESS 9.8% 10.15 2
4 7 STAR MAC 9.0% 11.06 9
5 2 HUGE WAVE 6.2% 16.16 3
6 8 WINNING GOLD 5.8% 17.30 1
7 1 TOURBILLON PRINCE 5.6% 17.75 6
8 10 SUPREME AGILITY 4.1% 24.32 11
9 12 CHING 4.0% 24.83 13
10 5 ROMANTIC LAOS 3.6% 27.99 5
11 4 NOBLE PURSUIT 3.1% 32.53 12
12 6 SUPERB KID 2.6% 37.99 7
13 3 OUTGATE 1.8% 54.65 14
14 13 MEGA FORCE 1.8% 56.36 8
DEFINITIVEMAGNIFICENT NINEMORGAN SUCCESSSTAR MACHUGE WAVEWINNING GOLD — wonTOURBILLON PRINCESUPREME AGILITYCHINGROMANTIC LAOSNOBLE PURSUITSUPERB KIDOUTGATEMEGA FORCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 126

PLACE

2 27

8 38.5

14 22.5

QUINELLA

8,14 368

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 144

2,14 88

8,14 120

FORECAST

8,14 805

TIERCE

8,14,2 6,528

TRIO

2,8,14 919

FIRST 4

2,8,11,14 810

QUARTET

8,14,2,11 24,687

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

14/3/8 11,756

14/3/14 1,267

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,8,10/2,8,14 54,739

9TH DOUBLE

3/8 954.5

3/14 94

SIX UP

1,4/2,3/4,7/1,14/3,8/8,14 18,806

4/3/7/14/3/8 1,394,342

1 [Z Purton]

1 [D A Hayes]