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Happy Valley · 2025-06-11 · 12:45

Race 5

Class 4 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-06-11 was Class 4 over 1650m. CAPITAL LEGEND, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with STERLING WONGCHOY second and SATIRICAL FAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite GLORIOUS JOURNEY finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.39.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C Fownes 8 4.7 1-1/4
2 12 STERLING WONGCHOY Led early B/XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte 6 8.5 1-1/4
3 4 SATIRICAL FAN TT H Bentley · C S Shum 1 7.9 3
4 9 CELESTIAL PATCH Closed strongly A Hamelin · D Eustace 11 7.4 4
5 7 STORMI Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 10 18.0 4
6 2 FOREVER GLORIOUS Closed strongly V/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 3 13.0 5-1/4
7 6 GREAT SPIRIT Closed strongly CP A Atzeni · C H Yip 9 34.0 5-1/4
8 3 SMART TRIO V/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 4 115.0 6
9 5 TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · K L Man 7 15.0 7-3/4
10 1 GLORIOUS JOURNEY TT Z Purton · F C Lor 5 3.0 11-1/2
11 10 FIGOPUMPKIN B J Orman · J Size 2 110.0 12-3/4
12 11 YODA'S CHOICE CP/TT B Thompson · P C Ng 12 19.0 29-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CAPITAL LEGEND2. STERLING WONGCHOY+1.25L3. SATIRICAL FAN+3L4. CELESTIAL PATCH+4L5. STORMI+4L6. FOREVER GLORIOUS+5.25L7. GREAT SPIRIT+5.25L8. SMART TRIO+6L9. TURIN WARRIOR+7.75L10. GLORIOUS JOURNEY+11.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GLORIOUS JOURNEY (24.7%) finished 10th — the winner CAPITAL LEGEND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GLORIOUS JOURNEY 24.7% 4.04 10
2 8 CAPITAL LEGEND 15.8% 6.33 1
3 2 FOREVER GLORIOUS 12.8% 7.80 6
4 4 SATIRICAL FAN 9.1% 10.97 3
5 12 STERLING WONGCHOY 8.6% 11.65 2
6 7 STORMI 7.4% 13.46 5
7 5 TURIN WARRIOR 6.5% 15.39 9
8 9 CELESTIAL PATCH 5.3% 18.83 4
9 11 YODA'S CHOICE 3.8% 26.09 12
10 6 GREAT SPIRIT 3.7% 26.76 7
11 10 FIGOPUMPKIN 1.1% 90.88 11
12 3 SMART TRIO 1.0% 97.65 8
GLORIOUS JOURNEYCAPITAL LEGEND — wonFOREVER GLORIOUSSATIRICAL FANSTERLING WONGCHOYSTORMITURIN WARRIORCELESTIAL PATCHYODA'S CHOICEGREAT SPIRITFIGOPUMPKINSMART TRIO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 47

PLACE

4 24.5

8 18

12 30

QUINELLA

8,12 227

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 61.5

4,12 112

8,12 74.5

FORECAST

8,12 444

TIERCE

8,12,4 2,381

TRIO

4,8,12 509

FIRST 4

4,8,9,12 1,015

QUARTET

8,12,4,9 19,699

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

10/12/8 2,230

10/12/12 519

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,10,12/4,8,12 110,746

4TH DOUBLE

12/8 272.5

12/12 41