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Happy Valley · 2025-06-11 · 14:55

Race 9

Class 3 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2025-06-11 was Class 3 over 1200m. NORDIC DRAGON, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with SOVEREIGN FUND second and EVERSTAR third. The 4.3 favourite CHATEAUNEUF finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.09.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 NORDIC DRAGON TT 1.09.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C S Shum 5 6.3 1/2
2 11 SOVEREIGN FUND B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 8 9.1 1/2
3 9 EVERSTAR CP H Bentley · Y S Tsui 3 6.7 1-1/4
4 8 VERY GRATEFUL TT K C Leung · W K Mo 1 10.0 1-3/4
5 2 WINGS OF WAR B H Bowman · D J Whyte 9 14.0 1-3/4
6 6 FATAL BLOW B1 A Atzeni · M Newnham 6 12.0 2-1/4
7 12 SKY CAP TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 2 13.0 3
8 7 LOOKING BRIGHT A Badel · F C Lor 4 29.0 3-1/4
9 1 CHATEAUNEUF CP/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 7 4.3 4-1/2
10 3 HAYDAY C L Chau · P F Yiu 12 34.0 5-1/2
11 4 KING MILES H/CP1/TT Z Purton · K W Lui 10 5.9 5-1/2
12 10 GOLDEN RISE B/TT B Thompson · J Size 11 79.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NORDIC DRAGON2. SOVEREIGN FUND+0.5L3. EVERSTAR+1.25L4. VERY GRATEFUL+1.75L5. WINGS OF WAR+1.75L6. FATAL BLOW+2.25L7. SKY CAP+3L8. LOOKING BRIGHT+3.25L9. CHATEAUNEUF+4.5L10. HAYDAY+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick KING MILES (21.0%) finished 11th — the winner NORDIC DRAGON was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 KING MILES 21.0% 4.75 11
2 5 NORDIC DRAGON 14.6% 6.85 1
3 6 FATAL BLOW 11.2% 8.93 6
4 11 SOVEREIGN FUND 10.4% 9.63 2
5 9 EVERSTAR 9.7% 10.26 3
6 1 CHATEAUNEUF 9.7% 10.28 9
7 8 VERY GRATEFUL 9.2% 10.85 4
8 2 WINGS OF WAR 5.0% 19.94 5
9 3 HAYDAY 2.6% 37.94 10
10 7 LOOKING BRIGHT 2.6% 39.01 8
11 12 SKY CAP 2.3% 43.11 7
12 10 GOLDEN RISE 1.6% 63.99 12
KING MILESNORDIC DRAGON — wonFATAL BLOWSOVEREIGN FUNDEVERSTARCHATEAUNEUFVERY GRATEFULWINGS OF WARHAYDAYLOOKING BRIGHTSKY CAPGOLDEN RISE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 63.5

PLACE

5 24.5

9 20.5

11 26.5

QUINELLA

5,11 297

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 92

5,11 92.5

9,11 80.5

FORECAST

5,11 602

TIERCE

5,11,9 4,112

TRIO

5,9,11 602

FIRST 4

5,8,9,11 1,381

QUARTET

5,11,9,8 37,102

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

6/4/5 14,945

6/4/11 1,876

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,9/5,9,11 110,082

8TH DOUBLE

4/5 917.5

4/11 144

SIX UP

6,12/8,12/4,8/2,6/4,6/5,11 16,506

12/8/4/6/4/5 1,479,138

1 [C Fownes]

5 [H Bentley]