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Happy Valley · 2025-06-11 · 14:20

Race 8

Class 3 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2025-06-11 was Class 3 over 1650m. DEFINITIVE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D Eustace, won by N, with PRESTIGE ALWAYS second and SAMARKAND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite LUCKY TOUCH finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.39.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 DEFINITIVE Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D Eustace 12 17.0 N
2 6 PRESTIGE ALWAYS Led early B/TT K C Leung · P C Ng 10 13.0 N
3 9 SAMARKAND CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 1 6.3 N
4 10 SURE JOYFUL Closed strongly TT J Orman · P F Yiu 5 22.0 1-1/4
5 7 STELLAR SWIFT Closed strongly B-/CP2/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 11 11.0 1-1/2
6 1 A AMERIC TE SPECSO Closed strongly B A Atzeni · J Size 3 17.0 1-1/2
7 3 NOBLE PURSUIT TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 2 16.0 2
8 8 LUCKY TOUCH Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · J Richards 6 4.3 2-3/4
9 2 EXCELLENCE VALUE B/TT H Bentley · M Newnham 4 4.3 3-1/2
10 12 FAST SPEED Closed strongly CP/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 9 53.0 3-1/2
11 11 WUKONG JEWELLERY TT B Thompson · J Size 8 75.0 4-1/4
12 5 KING OF FIGHTERS TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 7 5.7 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DEFINITIVE2. PRESTIGE ALWAYS+0.05L3. SAMARKAND+0.05L4. SURE JOYFUL+1.25L5. STELLAR SWIFT+1.5L6. A AMERIC TE SPECSO+1.5L7. NOBLE PURSUIT+2L8. LUCKY TOUCH+2.75L9. EXCELLENCE VALUE+3.5L10. FAST SPEED+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SAMARKAND (25.4%) finished 3rd — the winner DEFINITIVE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 SAMARKAND 25.4% 3.93 3
2 5 KING OF FIGHTERS 17.1% 5.86 12
3 2 EXCELLENCE VALUE 13.7% 7.30 9
4 8 LUCKY TOUCH 9.4% 10.67 8
5 1 A AMERIC TE SPECSO 7.1% 13.99 6
6 10 SURE JOYFUL 6.7% 14.86 4
7 7 STELLAR SWIFT 4.9% 20.34 5
8 4 DEFINITIVE 4.4% 22.72 1
9 3 NOBLE PURSUIT 4.2% 23.72 7
10 6 PRESTIGE ALWAYS 3.9% 25.94 2
11 11 WUKONG JEWELLERY 1.8% 55.79 11
12 12 FAST SPEED 1.4% 71.45 10
SAMARKANDKING OF FIGHTERSEXCELLENCE VALUELUCKY TOUCHA AMERIC TE SPECSOSURE JOYFULSTELLAR SWIFTDEFINITIVE — wonNOBLE PURSUITPRESTIGE ALWAYSWUKONG JEWELLERYFAST SPEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 172.5

PLACE

4 42

6 41

9 20

QUINELLA

4,6 798

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 239.5

4,9 166.5

6,9 134.5

FORECAST

4,6 1,503

TIERCE

4,6,9 10,773

TRIO

4,6,9 1,659

FIRST 4

4,6,9,10 4,445

QUARTET

4,6,9,10 106,169

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

6/4 788.5

6/6 119.5