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Sha Tin · 2025-06-14 · 09:05

Race 3

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-06-14 was Class 4 over 1200m. AEROVOLANIC, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by P C Ng, won by 1/2, with TOURBILLON GOLFER second and RAINBOW SEVEN third. The 3.1 favourite SEA SAPPHIRE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 AEROVOLANIC CP1 1.09.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · P C Ng 2 12.0 1/2
2 6 TOURBILLON GOLFER TT1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 4 15.0 1/2
3 3 RAINBOW SEVEN K C Leung · K W Lui 3 3.8 1
4 1 NORTHERN BEACHES CP H Bowman · W Y So 7 13.0 1
5 9 SEA SAPPHIRE TT B Thompson · D Eustace 5 3.1 2
6 11 KING ALLOY B H Bentley · K H Ting 1 19.0 3
7 2 AUTUMN VIBES SB/H1/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 8 15.0 3
8 7 WINNING DIAMOND Z Purton · C H Yip 11 8.7 4-1/4
9 5 NO OTHER CHOICE H1/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes 10 105.0 5-1/4
10 10 CHAMPION METHOD B P N Wong · C S Shum 9 32.0 5-3/4
11 8 BULLISH PRIDE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 52.0 7
12 12 FLYING DOUBLE CP-/B1 K Teetan · D J Hall 6 8.3 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AEROVOLANIC2. TOURBILLON GOLFER+0.5L3. RAINBOW SEVEN+1L4. NORTHERN BEACHES+1L5. SEA SAPPHIRE+2L6. KING ALLOY+3L7. AUTUMN VIBES+3L8. WINNING DIAMOND+4.25L9. NO OTHER CHOICE+5.25L10. CHAMPION METHOD+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick WINNING DIAMOND (21.2%) finished 8th — the winner AEROVOLANIC was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 WINNING DIAMOND 21.2% 4.71 8
2 3 RAINBOW SEVEN 20.5% 4.88 3
3 9 SEA SAPPHIRE 14.1% 7.11 5
4 12 FLYING DOUBLE 8.2% 12.17 12
5 2 AUTUMN VIBES 7.8% 12.85 7
6 1 NORTHERN BEACHES 6.3% 15.79 4
7 4 AEROVOLANIC 6.1% 16.32 1
8 6 TOURBILLON GOLFER 5.8% 17.17 2
9 8 BULLISH PRIDE 4.0% 25.14 11
10 5 NO OTHER CHOICE 2.6% 37.96 9
11 10 CHAMPION METHOD 1.8% 56.19 10
12 11 KING ALLOY 1.5% 65.40 6
WINNING DIAMONDRAINBOW SEVENSEA SAPPHIREFLYING DOUBLEAUTUMN VIBESNORTHERN BEACHESAEROVOLANIC — wonTOURBILLON GOLFERBULLISH PRIDENO OTHER CHOICECHAMPION METHODKING ALLOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 123.5

PLACE

3 16.5

4 36.5

6 51

QUINELLA

4,6 867.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 90.5

3,6 92.5

4,6 241.5

FORECAST

4,6 1,452

TIERCE

4,6,3 5,271

TRIO

3,4,6 585

FIRST 4

1,3,4,6 2,392

QUARTET

4,6,3,1 64,701

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,10/3,4,6 236,467

2ND DOUBLE

10/4 1,532

10/6 381.5