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Sha Tin · 2025-06-14 · 10:05

Race 5

Class 4 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-06-14 was Class 4 over 1400m. TRULY FLUKE, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by D Eustace, won by N, with ROMAN CROWN second and DEVAS TWELVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite SPECIAL HEDGE finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.21.56
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 TRULY FLUKE Closed strongly XB 1.21.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · D Eustace 13 14.0 N
2 10 ROMAN CROWN Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · P C Ng 10 17.0 N
3 2 DEVAS TWELVE Led early TT M Chadwick · W Y So 12 16.0 N
4 4 MIGHTY STEED Y L Chung · K W Lui 3 4.2 N
5 13 HE WAS ME B/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 1 47.0 3
6 3 REZEKI Closed strongly CP-/B1 K Teetan · D J Hall 11 28.0 3-1/4
7 1 WINNING DATA B E C W Wong · P F Yiu 8 22.0 3-1/2
8 8 STAR BROSE Closed strongly TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 9 8.0 3-3/4
9 12 SPECIAL HEDGE Closed strongly V/TT M F Poon · T P Yung 4 3.9 4-1/2
10 11 GROOVY FEELING Closed strongly TT B Thompson · J Richards 2 14.0 4-1/2
11 9 BULL ATTITUDE L Hewitson · M Newnham 14 25.0 5-1/4
12 14 SIGHT DREAMER TT A Badel · J Size 5 6.0 7-1/4
13 6 DREAMING WINNER CP/H/TT C L Chau · F C Lor 7 34.0 12-1/2
14 7 LEADING ARTICLE CP-/B1/TT H Bentley · W K Mo 6 133.0 24-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TRULY FLUKE2. ROMAN CROWN+0.05L3. DEVAS TWELVE+0.05L4. MIGHTY STEED+0.05L5. HE WAS ME+3L6. REZEKI+3.25L7. WINNING DATA+3.5L8. STAR BROSE+3.75L9. SPECIAL HEDGE+4.5L10. GROOVY FEELING+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SPECIAL HEDGE (17.4%) finished 9th — the winner TRULY FLUKE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 SPECIAL HEDGE 17.4% 5.74 9
2 8 STAR BROSE 14.7% 6.79 8
3 5 TRULY FLUKE 9.7% 10.28 1
4 4 MIGHTY STEED 9.5% 10.52 4
5 14 SIGHT DREAMER 8.2% 12.25 12
6 1 WINNING DATA 7.5% 13.32 7
7 9 BULL ATTITUDE 5.8% 17.27 11
8 10 ROMAN CROWN 5.5% 18.11 2
9 2 DEVAS TWELVE 5.0% 20.02 3
10 6 DREAMING WINNER 4.9% 20.55 13
11 3 REZEKI 4.0% 25.09 6
12 11 GROOVY FEELING 3.8% 26.47 10
13 13 HE WAS ME 2.2% 46.31 5
14 7 LEADING ARTICLE 1.9% 54.04 14
SPECIAL HEDGESTAR BROSETRULY FLUKE — wonMIGHTY STEEDSIGHT DREAMERWINNING DATABULL ATTITUDEROMAN CROWNDEVAS TWELVEDREAMING WINNERREZEKIGROOVY FEELINGHE WAS MELEADING ARTICLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 145.5

PLACE

2 48

5 46.5

10 56.5

QUINELLA

5,10 1,215

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 271

2,10 490.5

5,10 342.5

FORECAST

5,10 2,724

TIERCE

5,10,2 30,869

TRIO

2,5,10 4,955

FIRST 4

2,4,5,10 6,890

QUARTET

5,10,2,4 262,085

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

4/12/5 6,403

4/12/10 2,650

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,10,12/F 4,722

4TH DOUBLE

12/5 748

12/10 213.5