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Sha Tin · 2025-06-22 · 08:10

Race 1

Class 4 1000m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-06-22 was Class 4 over 1000m. LIGHTNESS OF MUSIC, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by 2, with AMAZING GALAXY second and KA YING WARRIOR third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.55.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 LIGHTNESS OF MUSIC TT1 0.55.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So 13 1.9 2
2 12 AMAZING GALAXY CP L Hewitson · K H Ting 10 43.0 2
3 9 KA YING WARRIOR XB M F Poon · T P Yung 14 11.0 3-1/2
4 11 KA YING RESILIENCE PC-/B1/TT J Orman · D A Hayes 5 13.0 4-1/4
5 1 AURORA PATCH V/TT P N Wong · K L Man 11 6.2 5-1/4
6 3 PERFECT GENERAL H/P/TT A Atzeni · C Fownes 1 24.0 6
6 4 GRAND NOVA E H Bowman · J Size 4 35.0 6
8 14 SANTORINI V-/B2 A Badel · F C Lor 6 67.0 7-1/4
9 2 MOON ROCKET TT K C Leung · C S Shum 3 10.0 7-1/2
10 13 BLUE BARON CP/XB/TT H Bentley · W K Mo 12 18.0 8
11 10 APPEALING CITY CP-/XB-/TT2 M L Yeung · D J Whyte 8 229.0 10-3/4
12 5 BOWSER XB-/V1 L Ferraris · P F Yiu 9 15.0 11-3/4
13 6 CIRRUS SPEED B Avdulla · D J Hall 2 24.0 17-1/4
14 7 GREAT LOOKING TT1 C L Chau · C H Yip 7 119.0 23-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LIGHTNESS OF MUSIC2. AMAZING GALAXY+2L3. KA YING WARRIOR+3.5L4. KA YING RESILIENCE+4.25L5. AURORA PATCH+5.25L6. PERFECT GENERAL+6L6. GRAND NOVA+6L8. SANTORINI+7.25L9. MOON ROCKET+7.5L10. BLUE BARON+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LIGHTNESS OF MUSIC (24.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 LIGHTNESS OF MUSIC 24.6% 4.07 1
2 2 MOON ROCKET 14.9% 6.73 9
3 5 BOWSER 11.7% 8.57 12
4 3 PERFECT GENERAL 10.2% 9.78 6
5 1 AURORA PATCH 9.7% 10.26 5
6 4 GRAND NOVA 6.4% 15.59 6
7 9 KA YING WARRIOR 4.6% 21.96 3
8 6 CIRRUS SPEED 3.9% 25.74 13
9 11 KA YING RESILIENCE 3.7% 26.74 4
10 7 GREAT LOOKING 2.7% 36.46 14
11 13 BLUE BARON 2.6% 38.33 10
12 12 AMAZING GALAXY 2.6% 38.67 2
13 14 SANTORINI 1.7% 58.18 8
14 10 APPEALING CITY 0.7% 150.00 11
LIGHTNESS OF MUSIC — wonMOON ROCKETBOWSERPERFECT GENERALAURORA PATCHGRAND NOVAKA YING WARRIORCIRRUS SPEEDKA YING RESILIENCEGREAT LOOKINGBLUE BARONAMAZING GALAXYSANTORINIAPPEALING CITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 19.5

PLACE

8 12.5

9 26

12 82

QUINELLA

8,12 409

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 44.5

8,12 156

9,12 416

FORECAST

8,12 484

TIERCE

8,12,9 3,622

TRIO

8,9,12 1,126

FIRST 4

8,9,11,12 2,985

QUARTET

8,12,9,11 39,640