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Happy Valley · 2025-07-16 · 10:35

Race 1

Class 5 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-07-16 was Class 5 over 1200m. SPEEDY SMARTIE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by T P Yung, won by NOSE, with RAGNARR second and DAN ATTACK third. The 3.4 favourite TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.09.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SPEEDY SMARTIE B/TT 1.09.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · T P Yung 7 7.7 NOSE
2 5 RAGNARR CP/H/XB M F Poon · D J Hall 4 6.2 NOSE
3 4 DAN ATTACK B-/XB2/TT- H Bowman · D J Whyte 2 5.5 HD
4 9 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING CP K C Leung · C W Chang 5 6.1 1/2
5 10 EVER SMART TT C L Chau · F C Lor 11 21.0 2-3/4
6 8 TALENTS SUPREMO V/TT K Teetan · W K Mo 9 36.0 3-1/4
7 1 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT Z Purton · C S Shum 3 3.4 4
8 3 WINNING HEART B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 1 10.0 5
9 12 SUPERB MOVE B/TT Y L Chung · C H Yip 8 54.0 5-1/2
10 6 SPORTIC WARRIOR B Thompson · K L Man 10 165.0 9
11 7 MACANESE MASTER CP-/V1/TT- J Orman · Y S Tsui 12 98.0 10-1/4
12 2 MY INTELLIGENT V/TT E C W Wong · W Y So 6 13.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPEEDY SMARTIE2. RAGNARR+0.05L3. DAN ATTACK+0.2L4. YOU'REMYEVERYTHING+0.5L5. EVER SMART+2.75L6. TALENTS SUPREMO+3.25L7. TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR+4L8. WINNING HEART+5L9. SUPERB MOVE+5.5L10. SPORTIC WARRIOR+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR (28.0%) finished 7th — the winner SPEEDY SMARTIE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR 28.0% 3.57 7
2 3 WINNING HEART 15.1% 6.62 8
3 5 RAGNARR 11.6% 8.63 2
4 9 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING 10.3% 9.73 4
5 11 SPEEDY SMARTIE 9.0% 11.14 1
6 4 DAN ATTACK 8.5% 11.73 3
7 2 MY INTELLIGENT 8.5% 11.81 12
8 10 EVER SMART 2.6% 38.74 5
9 12 SUPERB MOVE 2.3% 43.04 9
10 8 TALENTS SUPREMO 2.0% 49.24 6
11 7 MACANESE MASTER 1.3% 76.22 11
12 6 SPORTIC WARRIOR 0.8% 122.81 10
TRIUMPHANT WARRIORWINNING HEARTRAGNARRYOU'REMYEVERYTHINGSPEEDY SMARTIE — wonDAN ATTACKMY INTELLIGENTEVER SMARTSUPERB MOVETALENTS SUPREMOMACANESE MASTERSPORTIC WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 77.5

PLACE

4 21

5 19.5

11 26.5

QUINELLA

5,11 259

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 62.5

4,11 82.5

5,11 77.5

FORECAST

11,5 547

TIERCE

11,5,4 4,032

TRIO

4,5,11 499

FIRST 4

4,5,9,11 549

QUARTET

11,5,4,9 16,737