Happy Valley · 2025-07-16 · 12:05
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-07-16 was Class 4 over 1800m. S J TOURBILLON, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-1/2, with ATOMIC BEAUTY second and SUPREME AGILITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite FORTUNATE SON finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly CP/TT 1.48.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 5 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | ATOMIC BEAUTY Closed strongly V/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz | A Atzeni | A S Cruz | 11 | 9.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | SUPREME AGILITY Closed strongly TT J Orman · P C Ng | J Orman | P C Ng | 12 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | FLOOF Closed strongly H/TT A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 9 | 21.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | SUPER SICARIO H H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 1 | 4.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | STORMI B/TT- C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 4 | 7.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | FIGOPUMPKIN Closed strongly B M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 3 | 68.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 7 | ROMANTIC FANTASY B/TT Y L Chung · J Richards | Y L Chung | J Richards | 6 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | FORTUNATE SON TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 2 | 4.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | LEAN HERO Closed strongly B/XB/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 8 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | GOOD LUCK WIN B/TT Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 10 | 10.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 10 | LUCKY STATEMENT Led early B/TT E C W Wong · K L Man | E C W Wong | K L Man | 7 | 35.0 | 27 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | SUPER SICARIO | 18.6% | 5.36 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | FORTUNATE SON | 13.1% | 7.61 | 9 |
| 3 | 1 | S J TOURBILLON | 12.2% | 8.21 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | STORMI | 11.4% | 8.75 | 6 |
| 5 | 4 | SUPREME AGILITY | 9.8% | 10.23 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | GOOD LUCK WIN | 7.8% | 12.89 | 11 |
| 7 | 11 | ATOMIC BEAUTY | 7.0% | 14.28 | 2 |
| 8 | 10 | LUCKY STATEMENT | 5.8% | 17.21 | 12 |
| 9 | 7 | ROMANTIC FANTASY | 5.6% | 17.74 | 8 |
| 10 | 3 | LEAN HERO | 4.7% | 21.34 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | FLOOF | 2.6% | 37.82 | 4 |
| 12 | 9 | FIGOPUMPKIN | 1.3% | 77.78 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 100.5
PLACE
1 26.5
4 34.5
11 33.5
QUINELLA
1,11 400
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 180
1,11 123.5
4,11 215.5
FORECAST
1,11 764
TIERCE
1,11,4 9,393
TRIO
1,4,11 1,234
FIRST 4
1,4,8,11 7,033
QUARTET
1,11,4,8 167,877
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
10/1 572
10/11 85.5