Happy Valley · 2025-07-16 · 12:35
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-07-16 was Class 4 over 1200m. TACTICAL COMMAND, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by M Newnham, won by SH, with HONEST WITNESS second and GRAND NOVA third. The 3.2 favourite HONEST WITNESS finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | TACTICAL COMMAND B 1.09.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · M Newnham | A Atzeni | M Newnham | 2 | 7.3 | SH |
| 2 | 7 | HONEST WITNESS Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 4 | 3.2 | SH |
| 3 | 3 | GRAND NOVA E M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 3 | 12.0 | N |
| 4 | 2 | KING ECCELLENTE B/XB J Orman · D J Whyte | J Orman | D J Whyte | 6 | 17.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | BITS SUPERSTAR C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 7 | 18.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | GOLDEN FRIENDSHIP B1/TT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 8 | 29.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | DANCING CLASSICS TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 10 | 6.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | COSMO LIGHT TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 9 | 159.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | CIRCUIT VICTORY B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 5 | 4.7 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | TELECOM POWER B K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 1 | 6.8 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | TO INFINITY CP1 Y L Chung · J Richards | Y L Chung | J Richards | 11 | 118.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | GREAT LEGACY XB-/H1/TT1 A Hamelin · D J Hall | A Hamelin | D J Hall | 12 | 116.0 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | CIRCUIT VICTORY | 19.1% | 5.24 | 9 |
| 2 | 10 | TELECOM POWER | 17.5% | 5.72 | 10 |
| 3 | 4 | TACTICAL COMMAND | 16.6% | 6.04 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | DANCING CLASSICS | 14.1% | 7.10 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 | HONEST WITNESS | 13.6% | 7.33 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | GRAND NOVA | 6.2% | 16.24 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | KING ECCELLENTE | 4.6% | 21.69 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | BITS SUPERSTAR | 3.5% | 28.63 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | TO INFINITY | 2.4% | 42.44 | 11 |
| 10 | 11 | GOLDEN FRIENDSHIP | 1.3% | 75.80 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | COSMO LIGHT | 0.6% | 165.85 | 8 |
| 12 | 5 | GREAT LEGACY | 0.6% | 167.95 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 73.5
PLACE
3 32
4 20.5
7 14.5
QUINELLA
4,7 98
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 110
3,7 74
4,7 38.5
FORECAST
4,7 263
TIERCE
4,7,3 2,438
TRIO
3,4,7 381
FIRST 4
2,3,4,7 789
QUARTET
4,7,3,2 17,867
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
10/1/4 2,551
10/1/7 491
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,11/3,4,7 65,501
4TH DOUBLE
1/4 466
1/7 80