Happy Valley · 2025-07-16 · 11:35
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-07-16 was Class 4 over 1200m. VULCANUS, ridden by K C Leung and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 2-1/4, with BROWNNEEDSFURTHER second and LUCKY SAM GOR third. The 2.9 favourite LUCKY SAM GOR finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | VULCANUS B 1.09.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 3 | 5.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | BROWNNEEDSFURTHER J Orman · D J Hall | J Orman | D J Hall | 1 | 21.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 9 | LUCKY SAM GOR CP/XB M Chadwick · M Newnham | M Chadwick | M Newnham | 5 | 2.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | ARGENTO OCEAN H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 9 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | MEGA BONUS V E C W Wong · P F Yiu | E C W Wong | P F Yiu | 4 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | CALIFORNIA BLITZ B/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo | A Hamelin | W K Mo | 12 | 15.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | ALWAYS MY FOLKS H- K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 10 | 11.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | NIGHT PUROSANGUE CP B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 6 | 48.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 5 | BETTER AND BETTER H M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 2 | 5.6 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | SOLAR RIVER CP/TT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 7 | 11.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | LUCKY FIELD TT1 K De Melo · K L Man | K De Melo | K L Man | 11 | 70.0 | 18-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | LA MOMENTO H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 8 | 102.0 | 38-3/4 |
| — | 0 | AUTUMN DELIGHT A Atzeni · C Fownes | A Atzeni | C Fownes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | VULCANUS | 23.1% | 4.33 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | LUCKY SAM GOR | 14.6% | 6.84 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | SOLAR RIVER | 13.7% | 7.28 | 10 |
| 4 | 5 | BETTER AND BETTER | 13.0% | 7.67 | 9 |
| 5 | 11 | ALWAYS MY FOLKS | 10.4% | 9.59 | 7 |
| 6 | 1 | MEGA BONUS | 7.6% | 13.13 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | ARGENTO OCEAN | 4.7% | 21.15 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | BROWNNEEDSFURTHER | 4.2% | 24.08 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | CALIFORNIA BLITZ | 3.5% | 28.49 | 6 |
| 10 | 4 | LUCKY FIELD | 2.6% | 38.36 | 11 |
| 11 | 12 | NIGHT PUROSANGUE | 1.8% | 55.70 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | LA MOMENTO | 0.7% | 142.82 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 51.5
PLACE
3 53.5
9 14.5
10 16.5
QUINELLA
3,10 573.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 128.5
3,10 168.5
9,10 29.5
FORECAST
10,3 1,008
TIERCE
10,3,9 4,360
TRIO
3,9,10 498
FIRST 4
2,3,9,10 1,271
QUARTET
10,3,9,2 38,288
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,10,11/3,9,10 8,884
2ND DOUBLE
4,10/3 157
4,10/10 333