Happy Valley · 2025-09-17 · 11:45
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2025-09-17 was Class 4 over 1200m. MIGHTY COMMANDER, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with CALIFORNIA BLITZ second and TELECOM POWER third. The 2.7 favourite ALWAYS MY FOLKS finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MIGHTY COMMANDER TT 1.09.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 5 | 4.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 6 | CALIFORNIA BLITZ B/TT C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 2 | 5.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 10 | TELECOM POWER B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 9 | 44.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | KNOW AT HEART K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 3 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | AMAZING KID B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 4 | 38.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | ALWAYS MY FOLKS CP1 K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 1 | 2.7 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | REWARDING BUDDY CP- L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 7 | 119.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | GOLDEN DARCI XB J Orman · D J Whyte | J Orman | D J Whyte | 10 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | SNOWTHORN CP-/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 6 | 13.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 11 | 6.6 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | STAR GLOW C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 61.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 11 | CHAMPION METHOD B/TT D Probert · C S Shum | D Probert | C S Shum | 12 | 96.0 | 17 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | ALWAYS MY FOLKS | 25.8% | 3.88 | 6 |
| 2 | 3 | GOLDEN DARCI | 14.6% | 6.84 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | MIGHTY COMMANDER | 13.3% | 7.51 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | CALIFORNIA BLITZ | 12.4% | 8.09 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | KNOW AT HEART | 7.8% | 12.76 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | GOLDEN LUCK | 5.9% | 16.92 | 10 |
| 7 | 8 | SNOWTHORN | 5.4% | 18.58 | 9 |
| 8 | 10 | TELECOM POWER | 4.2% | 24.07 | 3 |
| 9 | 5 | AMAZING KID | 3.8% | 26.14 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | STAR GLOW | 2.8% | 35.87 | 11 |
| 11 | 11 | CHAMPION METHOD | 2.1% | 46.90 | 12 |
| 12 | 7 | REWARDING BUDDY | 1.9% | 53.08 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 48.5
PLACE
2 18.5
6 19.5
10 89.5
QUINELLA
2,6 149.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 54
2,10 265.5
6,10 331
FORECAST
2,6 306
TIERCE
2,6,10 7,377
TRIO
2,6,10 1,649
FIRST 4
2,4,6,10 2,191
QUARTET
2,6,10,4 34,432
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
2,6/2 112
2,6/6 47
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,10>2,6/2,6,10 56,793