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Happy Valley · 2025-09-17 · 13:15

Race 5

Class 4 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-09-17 was Class 4 over 1200m. MASTER CHAMPION, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with PATCH OF WATCH second and NEW POWER third. The 2.9 favourite HONEST WITNESS finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.09.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 MASTER CHAMPION 1.09.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C S Shum 1 3.9 1-1/4
2 11 PATCH OF WATCH TT M F Poon · K L Man 10 15.0 1-1/4
3 3 NEW POWER M L Yeung · C W Chang 3 4.9 1-1/4
4 9 ACROSS DA UNIVERSE XB-/B1/TT C L Chau · P C Ng 7 22.0 1-3/4
5 10 EXCEED THE WISH H L Hewitson · M Newnham 8 16.0 2
6 12 GLORY CLOUD B-/TT A Badel · C Fownes 5 6.6 2-1/4
7 8 I P O BROS B R Kingscote · Y S Tsui 12 144.0 2-3/4
8 4 HONEST WITNESS TT1 Z Purton · D A Hayes 6 2.9 3-1/2
9 7 POWER SUMMIT SR/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 2 42.0 4-1/4
10 6 CIRCUIT DUFFY L Ferraris · F C Lor 4 59.0 5
11 5 MULTIDUTCH B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 153.0 6-3/4
12 2 MEGA BONUS V E C W Wong · P F Yiu 11 31.0 18-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER CHAMPION2. PATCH OF WATCH+1.25L3. NEW POWER+1.25L4. ACROSS DA UNIVERSE+1.75L5. EXCEED THE WISH+2L6. GLORY CLOUD+2.25L7. I P O BROS+2.75L8. HONEST WITNESS+3.5L9. POWER SUMMIT+4.25L10. CIRCUIT DUFFY+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick HONEST WITNESS (44.2%) finished 8th — the winner MASTER CHAMPION was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 HONEST WITNESS 44.2% 2.26 8
2 1 MASTER CHAMPION 15.7% 6.36 1
3 10 EXCEED THE WISH 6.8% 14.70 5
4 12 GLORY CLOUD 6.6% 15.13 6
5 3 NEW POWER 6.1% 16.51 3
6 2 MEGA BONUS 4.4% 22.99 12
7 11 PATCH OF WATCH 3.7% 27.39 2
8 7 POWER SUMMIT 3.5% 28.24 9
9 8 I P O BROS 3.0% 33.55 7
10 9 ACROSS DA UNIVERSE 2.4% 41.55 4
11 6 CIRCUIT DUFFY 2.1% 47.64 10
12 5 MULTIDUTCH 1.5% 65.95 11
HONEST WITNESSMASTER CHAMPION — wonEXCEED THE WISHGLORY CLOUDNEW POWERMEGA BONUSPATCH OF WATCHPOWER SUMMITI P O BROSACROSS DA UNIVERSECIRCUIT DUFFYMULTIDUTCH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 39.5

PLACE

1 15

3 16

11 38.5

QUINELLA

1,11 315

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 35.5

1,11 95

3,11 106

FORECAST

1,11 607

TIERCE

1,11,3 2,699

TRIO

1,3,11 510

FIRST 4

1,3,9,11 2,275

QUARTET

1,11,3,9 40,469

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

8/5/1 6,722

8/5/11 5,251

4TH DOUBLE

5/1 447.5

5/11 575.5