Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2025-09-17 · 12:15

Race 3

Class 4 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-09-17 was Class 4 over 1800m. FOREVER FOLKS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with SUPREME AGILITY second and CAN'T GO WONG third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite FIREFOOT finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.48.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B2/TT1 1.48.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C S Shum 10 15.0 1
2 2 SUPREME AGILITY Closed strongly TT J Orman · P C Ng 9 5.7 1
3 3 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 4 18.0 1-1/4
4 6 DILBAGH Closed strongly SR/XB/TT R Kingscote · D J Whyte 3 36.0 1-3/4
5 10 ROMANTIC FANTASY Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · J Richards 7 6.7 2-1/2
6 9 FIREFOOT CP/TT Z Purton · W Y So 5 4.4 2-3/4
7 4 PRINCE ALEX Closed strongly CP/XB/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 6 23.0 3-3/4
8 7 PERFECT PAIRING Closed strongly B B Avdulla · J Size 8 36.0 3-3/4
9 1 SAMARKAND CP/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 11 7.9 5
10 11 YIU CHEUNG VICTORY SR-/B1 C L Chau · C H Yip 2 10.0 6-3/4
11 5 KINGLY DEMEANOR Led early TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 12 16.0 7-3/4
12 12 ATOMIC BEAUTY V/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz 1 5.9 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FOREVER FOLKS2. SUPREME AGILITY+1L3. CAN'T GO WONG+1.25L4. DILBAGH+1.75L5. ROMANTIC FANTASY+2.5L6. FIREFOOT+2.75L7. PRINCE ALEX+3.75L8. PERFECT PAIRING+3.75L9. SAMARKAND+5L10. YIU CHEUNG VICTORY+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ATOMIC BEAUTY (26.8%) finished 12th — the winner FOREVER FOLKS was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 ATOMIC BEAUTY 26.8% 3.73 12
2 9 FIREFOOT 16.2% 6.16 6
3 2 SUPREME AGILITY 12.7% 7.90 2
4 10 ROMANTIC FANTASY 8.9% 11.22 5
5 5 KINGLY DEMEANOR 8.1% 12.36 11
6 1 SAMARKAND 6.3% 15.89 9
7 4 PRINCE ALEX 4.7% 21.16 7
8 8 FOREVER FOLKS 4.0% 25.18 1
9 3 CAN'T GO WONG 3.8% 26.10 3
10 11 YIU CHEUNG VICTORY 3.3% 30.57 10
11 7 PERFECT PAIRING 3.2% 31.64 8
12 6 DILBAGH 2.0% 49.28 4
ATOMIC BEAUTYFIREFOOTSUPREME AGILITYROMANTIC FANTASYKINGLY DEMEANORSAMARKANDPRINCE ALEXFOREVER FOLKS — wonCAN'T GO WONGYIU CHEUNG VICTORYPERFECT PAIRINGDILBAGH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 157

PLACE

2 19.5

3 46

8 48.5

QUINELLA

2,8 463.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 153.5

2,8 154

3,8 319.5

FORECAST

8,2 1,002

TIERCE

8,2,3 10,077

TRIO

2,3,8 1,812

FIRST 4

2,3,6,8 11,781

QUARTET

8,2,3,6 183,428

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/2 38

2/8 757