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Happy Valley · 2025-09-17 · 12:45

Race 4

Class 3 1650m Course B 9 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-09-17 was Class 3 over 1650m. ROCKET SPADE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with STAR CONTACT second and ANOTHER ZONDA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite EXCELLENCE VALUE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.39.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly XB/TT 1.39.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes 5 10.0 N
2 3 STAR CONTACT TT B Avdulla · D A Hayes 8 7.1 N
3 6 ANOTHER ZONDA Led early B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 7 5.0 1
4 2 ROMANTIC LAOS CP/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 1 9.6 1-1/2
5 4 EXCELLENCE VALUE Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · M Newnham 4 3.8 2-1/4
6 8 VICTOR THE RAPID Closed strongly TT K Teetan · P C Ng 6 6.6 2-3/4
7 7 HARMONY GALAXY TT C L Chau · C S Shum 3 13.0 2-3/4
8 9 SURE JOYFUL TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 2 16.0 3-1/4
9 1 I CAN H/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 9 7.6 4-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ROCKET SPADE2. STAR CONTACT+0.05L3. ANOTHER ZONDA+1L4. ROMANTIC LAOS+1.5L5. EXCELLENCE VALUE+2.25L6. VICTOR THE RAPID+2.75L7. HARMONY GALAXY+2.75L8. SURE JOYFUL+3.25L9. I CAN+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick EXCELLENCE VALUE (21.8%) finished 5th — the winner ROCKET SPADE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 EXCELLENCE VALUE 21.8% 4.59 5
2 6 ANOTHER ZONDA 13.5% 7.40 3
3 2 ROMANTIC LAOS 12.6% 7.92 4
4 5 ROCKET SPADE 12.1% 8.24 1
5 8 VICTOR THE RAPID 10.1% 9.91 6
6 7 HARMONY GALAXY 8.5% 11.75 7
7 1 I CAN 8.5% 11.77 9
8 3 STAR CONTACT 7.5% 13.40 2
9 9 SURE JOYFUL 5.4% 18.68 8
EXCELLENCE VALUEANOTHER ZONDAROMANTIC LAOSROCKET SPADE — wonVICTOR THE RAPIDHARMONY GALAXYI CANSTAR CONTACTSURE JOYFUL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 105.5

PLACE

3 23.5

5 29

6 16

QUINELLA

3,5 386

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 115.5

3,6 77.5

5,6 110.5

FORECAST

5,3 717

TIERCE

5,3,6 5,086

TRIO

3,5,6 821

FIRST 4

2,3,5,6 1,093

QUARTET

5,3,6,2 26,503

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,8/3,5,6 93,089

3RD DOUBLE

8/3 246.5

8/5 1,623.5