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Happy Valley · 2025-09-17 · 13:50

Race 6

Class 4 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2025-09-17 was Class 4 over 1200m. KING LOTUS, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by M Newnham, won by 1-3/4, with THE PERFECT MATCH second and SUPER UNIVERSAL third. The 4.1 favourite VULCANUS finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 KING LOTUS 1.09.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · M Newnham 7 6.2 1-3/4
2 3 THE PERFECT MATCH TT H Bowman · C S Shum 1 6.1 1-3/4
3 9 SUPER UNIVERSAL TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 13.0 1-3/4
4 5 ACE POWER V/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 10 18.0 2
5 11 SKY SONG B/TT M F Poon · C Fownes 2 10.0 2-1/4
6 6 VULCANUS B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 5 4.1 2-1/4
7 8 SPICY SPANGLE H/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 4 15.0 3
8 1 SPANGLE FORTUNE B/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 12 19.0 3
9 7 OUR LUCKY GLORY TT A Badel · W Y So 6 14.0 3-1/4
10 4 GENIUS BABY B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 3 9.0 5-1/4
11 10 NEBRASKAN B K Teetan · J Size 11 8.6 5-3/4
12 12 YODA'S CHOICE CP/TT D Probert · P C Ng 9 90.0 9-1/2
0 AMAZING VICTORY J Orman · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING LOTUS2. THE PERFECT MATCH+1.75L3. SUPER UNIVERSAL+1.75L4. ACE POWER+2L5. SKY SONG+2.25L6. VULCANUS+2.25L7. SPICY SPANGLE+3L8. SPANGLE FORTUNE+3L9. OUR LUCKY GLORY+3.25L10. GENIUS BABY+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick VULCANUS (25.6%) finished 6th — the winner KING LOTUS was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 VULCANUS 25.6% 3.91 6
2 4 GENIUS BABY 12.2% 8.23 10
3 3 THE PERFECT MATCH 11.8% 8.46 2
4 10 NEBRASKAN 8.4% 11.89 11
5 7 OUR LUCKY GLORY 7.7% 13.05 9
6 8 SPICY SPANGLE 7.0% 14.23 7
7 11 SKY SONG 5.9% 16.97 5
8 2 KING LOTUS 5.9% 16.98 1
9 9 SUPER UNIVERSAL 4.7% 21.11 3
10 1 SPANGLE FORTUNE 4.2% 23.53 8
11 5 ACE POWER 3.7% 26.94 4
12 12 YODA'S CHOICE 2.9% 34.91 12
VULCANUSGENIUS BABYTHE PERFECT MATCHNEBRASKANOUR LUCKY GLORYSPICY SPANGLESKY SONGKING LOTUS — wonSUPER UNIVERSALSPANGLE FORTUNEACE POWERYODA'S CHOICE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 62

PLACE

2 24.5

3 20

9 44.5

QUINELLA

2,3 264

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 92

2,9 166.5

3,9 165.5

FORECAST

2,3 577

TIERCE

2,3,9 8,384

TRIO

2,3,9 1,418

FIRST 4

2,3,5,9 3,808

QUARTET

2,3,9,5 77,027

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,11/2,3,9 60,653

5TH DOUBLE

1/2 335.5

1/3 37

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,6/1,3,11/Any Combination 14,559