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Sha Tin · 2025-10-26 · 06:45

Race 1

Class 5 1800m Course A 13 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-26 was Class 5 over 1800m. ON THE LASH, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P C Ng, won, with COOL BLUE second and CELESTIAL HARMONY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite YIU CHEUNG VICTORY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1:47.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 ON THE LASH Closed strongly 1:47.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P C Ng 10 10.0
2 9 COOL BLUE Closed strongly R Kingscote · W Y So 1 10.0 1
3 2 CELESTIAL HARMONY P N Wong · D A Hayes 9 10.0 1-1/4
4 1 YIU CHEUNG VICTORY Closed strongly Z Purton · C H Yip 2 4.5 1-1/2
5 5 GOLD TACK Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall 13 11.0 2
6 7 SMASHING EXPRESS J Orman · J Size 5 9.1 3
7 11 MR ALADDIN Closed strongly K Teetan · P C Ng 12 5.2 3-1/4
8 8 GO GO GO D Probert · W Y So 3 30.0 3-1/4
9 13 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly M Chadwick · J Richards 8 6.3 3-1/2
10 6 PHANTOM CYCLONE C L Chau · K H Ting 7 26.0 3-1/2
11 4 GOLDEN FAIRY E C W Wong · W Y So 4 22.0 6-1/4
12 3 SMART BEAUTY Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 31.0 8
13 12 FUNG Led early H T Mo · C W Chang 6 80.0 33-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ON THE LASH2. COOL BLUE+1L3. CELESTIAL HARMONY+1.25L4. YIU CHEUNG VICTORY+1.5L5. GOLD TACK+2L6. SMASHING EXPRESS+3L7. MR ALADDIN+3.25L8. GO GO GO+3.25L9. STRONGEST BOY+3.5L10. PHANTOM CYCLONE+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MR ALADDIN (15.2%) finished 7th — the winner ON THE LASH was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 MR ALADDIN 15.2% 6.60 7
2 5 GOLD TACK 11.8% 8.49 5
3 1 YIU CHEUNG VICTORY 11.7% 8.53 4
4 7 SMASHING EXPRESS 9.8% 10.20 6
5 6 PHANTOM CYCLONE 9.2% 10.88 10
6 2 CELESTIAL HARMONY 7.8% 12.81 3
7 8 GO GO GO 6.8% 14.74 8
8 13 STRONGEST BOY 6.7% 14.84 9
9 9 COOL BLUE 5.9% 16.94 2
10 3 SMART BEAUTY 4.8% 20.87 12
11 10 ON THE LASH 4.8% 20.89 1
12 4 GOLDEN FAIRY 3.6% 28.11 11
13 12 FUNG 2.0% 50.60 13
MR ALADDINGOLD TACKYIU CHEUNG VICTORYSMASHING EXPRESSPHANTOM CYCLONECELESTIAL HARMONYGO GO GOSTRONGEST BOYCOOL BLUESMART BEAUTYON THE LASH — wonGOLDEN FAIRYFUNG

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 105.5

PLACE

2 36.5

9 34.5

10 38.5

QUINELLA

9,10 547.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 192

2,10 192

9,10 197

FORECAST

10,9 1,156

TIERCE

10,9,2 14,869

TRIO

2,9,10 2,555

FIRST 4

1,2,9,10 3,689

QUARTET

10,9,2,1 118,217