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Sha Tin · 2025-10-26 · 12:45

Race 1

Class 5 1800m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1:47.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 ON THE LASH Closed strongly 1:47.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P C Ng 10 10.0 —
2 9 COOL BLUE Closed strongly R Kingscote · W Y So 1 10.0 1
3 2 CELESTIAL HARMONY P N Wong · D A Hayes 9 10.0 1-1/4
4 1 YIU CHEUNG VICTORY Closed strongly Z Purton · C H Yip 2 4.5 1-1/2
5 5 GOLD TACK Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall 13 11.0 2
6 7 SMASHING EXPRESS J Orman · J Size 5 9.1 3
7 11 MR ALADDIN Closed strongly K Teetan · P C Ng 12 5.2 3-1/4
8 8 GO GO GO D Probert · W Y So 3 30.0 3-1/4
9 13 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly M Chadwick · J Richards 8 6.3 3-1/2
10 6 PHANTOM CYCLONE C L Chau · K H Ting 7 26.0 3-1/2
11 4 GOLDEN FAIRY E C W Wong · W Y So 4 22.0 6-1/4
12 3 SMART BEAUTY Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 31.0 8
13 12 FUNG Led early H T Mo · C W Chang 6 80.0 33-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-26 was Class 5 over 1800m. ON THE LASH, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P C Ng, won, with COOL BLUE second and CELESTIAL HARMONY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite YIU CHEUNG VICTORY finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ON THE LASH—2. COOL BLUE+1L3. CELESTIAL HARMONY+1.25L4. YIU CHEUNG VICTORY+1.5L5. GOLD TACK+2L6. SMASHING EXPRESS+3L7. MR ALADDIN+3.25L8. GO GO GO+3.25L9. STRONGEST BOY+3.5L10. PHANTOM CYCLONE+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MR ALADDIN (15.2%) finished 7th — the winner ON THE LASH was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 MR ALADDIN 15.2% 6.60 7
2 5 GOLD TACK 11.8% 8.49 5
3 1 YIU CHEUNG VICTORY 11.7% 8.53 4
4 7 SMASHING EXPRESS 9.8% 10.20 6
5 6 PHANTOM CYCLONE 9.2% 10.88 10
6 2 CELESTIAL HARMONY 7.8% 12.81 3
7 8 GO GO GO 6.8% 14.74 8
8 13 STRONGEST BOY 6.7% 14.84 9
9 9 COOL BLUE 5.9% 16.94 2
10 3 SMART BEAUTY 4.8% 20.87 12
11 10 ON THE LASH 4.8% 20.89 1
12 4 GOLDEN FAIRY 3.6% 28.11 11
13 12 FUNG 2.0% 50.60 13
MR ALADDINGOLD TACKYIU CHEUNG VICTORYSMASHING EXPRESSPHANTOM CYCLONECELESTIAL HARMONYGO GO GOSTRONGEST BOYCOOL BLUESMART BEAUTYON THE LASH — wonGOLDEN FAIRYFUNG

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 105.5

PLACE

2 36.5

9 34.5

10 38.5

QUINELLA

9,10 547.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 192

2,10 192

9,10 197

FORECAST

10,9 1,156

TIERCE

10,9,2 14,869

TRIO

2,9,10 2,555

FIRST 4

1,2,9,10 3,689

QUARTET

10,9,2,1 118,217