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Sha Tin · 2025-10-26 · 09:25

Race 9

Class 3 1000m Course A 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-26 was Class 3 over 1000m. ALPHA STRIKE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won, with SPARKLING FELLOW second and CASA OF HONOR third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 0:56.37
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 ALPHA STRIKE 0:56.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 2.8
2 14 SPARKLING FELLOW A Badel · D J Hall 11 12.0 N
3 4 CASA OF HONOR M F Poon · C W Chang 6 21.0 N
4 5 SUNNY DA BEST L Ferraris · W Y So 1 49.0 1-1/2
5 11 ALSONSO B Avdulla · M Newnham 10 5.5 1-3/4
6 7 STORMY GROVE H Bentley · F C Lor 5 34.0 1-3/4
7 1 WONDERSTAR M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 2 10.0 2
8 12 SUPERB KING K De Melo · K W Lui 4 103.0 2
9 2 FAST RESPONDER H Bowman · D J Whyte 8 12.0 2-3/4
10 13 QUICK MONEY K Teetan · C H Yip 13 14.0 3-3/4
11 6 HOLMES A COURT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 14 105.0 6-1/4
12 3 METRO POWER Z Purton · D A Hayes 3 8.6 6-1/4
13 8 ACE CHAMPION K C Leung · P C Ng 12 27.0 8-1/4
9 CHILL BUDDY A Atzeni · P F Yiu 11.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALPHA STRIKE2. SPARKLING FELLOW+0.05L3. CASA OF HONOR+0.05L4. SUNNY DA BEST+1.5L5. ALSONSO+1.75L6. STORMY GROVE+1.75L7. WONDERSTAR+2L8. SUPERB KING+2L9. FAST RESPONDER+2.75L10. QUICK MONEY+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick WONDERSTAR (25.9%) finished 7th — the winner ALPHA STRIKE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 WONDERSTAR 25.9% 3.86 7
2 3 METRO POWER 12.9% 7.73 12
3 2 FAST RESPONDER 12.7% 7.87 9
4 10 ALPHA STRIKE 9.8% 10.25 1
5 11 ALSONSO 8.1% 12.30 5
6 8 ACE CHAMPION 5.6% 17.79 13
7 14 SPARKLING FELLOW 5.1% 19.58 2
8 13 QUICK MONEY 5.0% 20.05 10
9 5 SUNNY DA BEST 4.3% 23.08 4
10 4 CASA OF HONOR 3.9% 25.75 3
11 7 STORMY GROVE 3.3% 30.14 6
12 12 SUPERB KING 1.7% 57.73 8
13 6 HOLMES A COURT 1.6% 64.39 11
WONDERSTARMETRO POWERFAST RESPONDERALPHA STRIKE — wonALSONSOACE CHAMPIONSPARKLING FELLOWQUICK MONEYSUNNY DA BESTCASA OF HONORSTORMY GROVESUPERB KINGHOLMES A COURT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 28.5

PLACE

4 47

10 15

14 33

QUINELLA

10,14 211

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 126

4,14 287

10,14 79

FORECAST

10,14 301

TIERCE

10,14,4 3,543

TRIO

4,10,14 1,080

FIRST 4

4,5,10,14 7,312

QUARTET

10,14,4,5 64,659

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

13/10 203

13/14 96.5