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Sha Tin · 2025-11-15 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 4 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-15 was Class 4 over 1200m. SALON S, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won, with SUPER DRAGON second and COOL BOY third. The 1.6 favourite GEORGIAN SIGMA finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1:09.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SALON S 1:09.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor 4 11.0
2 14 SUPER DRAGON J McDonald · M Newnham 5 4.3 1-1/4
3 3 COOL BOY J Orman · J Richards 11 50.0 2-3/4
4 2 GEORGIAN SIGMA Z Purton · P C Ng 12 1.6 3-3/4
5 4 ELITE GOLF H Bentley · W Y So 6 26.0 4-3/4
6 12 TURIN CHAMPIONS K De Melo · D A Hayes 8 29.0 5-1/4
7 6 FALCON HUNTER C L Chau · C H Yip 13 114.0 6-1/2
8 7 FOREVER FANCY D Probert · K W Lui 7 58.0 6-3/4
9 13 WORD OF KINDNESS Y L Chung · C S Shum 3 105.0 6-3/4
10 11 STAR ELEGANCE L Ferraris · D J Whyte 2 50.0 8
11 8 JOLLY BRILLIANT H Doyle · P F Yiu 1 24.0 8-1/4
12 1 LIGHT YEARS GLORY M Chadwick · W K Mo 14 22.0 9
13 5 EXCELLENT BOY R Kingscote · C W Chang 10 88.0 11-3/4
14 9 RUBY THRIVE C Y Ho · K L Man 9 24.0 17-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SALON S2. SUPER DRAGON+1.25L3. COOL BOY+2.75L4. GEORGIAN SIGMA+3.75L5. ELITE GOLF+4.75L6. TURIN CHAMPIONS+5.25L7. FALCON HUNTER+6.5L8. FOREVER FANCY+6.75L9. WORD OF KINDNESS+6.75L10. STAR ELEGANCE+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick GEORGIAN SIGMA (42.1%) finished 4th — the winner SALON S was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 GEORGIAN SIGMA 42.1% 2.37 4
2 14 SUPER DRAGON 8.8% 11.32 2
3 10 SALON S 7.6% 13.14 1
4 11 STAR ELEGANCE 6.2% 16.26 10
5 9 RUBY THRIVE 5.9% 17.09 14
6 8 JOLLY BRILLIANT 5.8% 17.30 11
7 13 WORD OF KINDNESS 4.3% 23.25 9
8 1 LIGHT YEARS GLORY 3.7% 27.16 12
9 5 EXCELLENT BOY 3.4% 29.26 13
10 3 COOL BOY 2.8% 35.98 3
11 12 TURIN CHAMPIONS 2.8% 36.11 6
12 4 ELITE GOLF 2.6% 38.64 5
13 7 FOREVER FANCY 2.5% 39.37 8
14 6 FALCON HUNTER 1.6% 64.13 7
GEORGIAN SIGMASUPER DRAGONSALON S — wonSTAR ELEGANCERUBY THRIVEJOLLY BRILLIANTWORD OF KINDNESSLIGHT YEARS GLORYEXCELLENT BOYCOOL BOYTURIN CHAMPIONSELITE GOLFFOREVER FANCYFALCON HUNTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 117

PLACE

3 73.5

10 20.5

14 13.5

QUINELLA

10,14 182

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 293.5

3,14 208

10,14 51.5

FORECAST

10,14 475

TIERCE

10,14,3 11,902

TRIO

3,10,14 2,123

FIRST 4

2,3,10,14 491

QUARTET

10,14,3,2 21,783