Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2025-11-15 · 06:40

Race 4

Class 3 1000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-15 was Class 3 over 1000m. CRIMSON FLASH, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by M Newnham, won, with FAST RESPONDER second and SPARKLING FELLOW third. The 5.4 favourite SPARKLING FELLOW finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0:56.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 CRIMSON FLASH 0:56.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · M Newnham 7 6.1
2 3 FAST RESPONDER P N Wong · D J Whyte 14 7.0 3/4
3 12 SPARKLING FELLOW A Badel · D J Hall 11 5.4 1-3/4
4 9 CHILL BUDDY L Ferraris · P F Yiu 10 8.8 2-1/4
5 5 LOVE TOGETHER C Y Ho · C Fownes 13 17.0 3
6 6 PARENTS' LOVE Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 5.6 3
7 14 VICTOR THE RAPID M L Yeung · P C Ng 8 45.0 4-1/2
8 4 CASA OF HONOR Z Purton · C W Chang 1 6.1 5
9 8 CHICKEN DINNER H Bentley · J Richards 9 22.0 5-1/4
10 7 PEGAS H Doyle · Y S Tsui 2 37.0 5-1/2
11 13 SUPERB KING M Chadwick · K W Lui 3 38.0 6-1/2
12 10 E HO HO C L Chau · K L Man 4 99.0 6-1/2
13 11 DANICA'S CHOICE K C Leung · F C Lor 6 42.0 6-3/4
14 1 STELLAR EXPRESS B Avdulla · J Size 5 17.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CRIMSON FLASH2. FAST RESPONDER+0.75L3. SPARKLING FELLOW+1.75L4. CHILL BUDDY+2.25L5. LOVE TOGETHER+3L6. PARENTS' LOVE+3L7. VICTOR THE RAPID+4.5L8. CASA OF HONOR+5L9. CHICKEN DINNER+5.25L10. PEGAS+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick CASA OF HONOR (18.1%) finished 8th — the winner CRIMSON FLASH was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 CASA OF HONOR 18.1% 5.51 8
2 12 SPARKLING FELLOW 16.1% 6.21 3
3 6 PARENTS' LOVE 11.5% 8.67 6
4 3 FAST RESPONDER 10.5% 9.51 2
5 2 CRIMSON FLASH 8.6% 11.60 1
6 5 LOVE TOGETHER 7.6% 13.20 5
7 9 CHILL BUDDY 6.7% 14.91 4
8 7 PEGAS 4.6% 21.90 10
9 10 E HO HO 3.2% 31.60 12
10 8 CHICKEN DINNER 2.9% 33.97 9
11 11 DANICA'S CHOICE 2.9% 34.55 13
12 1 STELLAR EXPRESS 2.8% 35.19 14
13 14 VICTOR THE RAPID 2.5% 40.10 7
14 13 SUPERB KING 1.9% 52.46 11
CASA OF HONORSPARKLING FELLOWPARENTS' LOVEFAST RESPONDERCRIMSON FLASH — wonLOVE TOGETHERCHILL BUDDYPEGASE HO HOCHICKEN DINNERDANICA'S CHOICESTELLAR EXPRESSVICTOR THE RAPIDSUPERB KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 61

PLACE

2 21

3 26

12 18.5

QUINELLA

2,3 230

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 83

2,12 61.5

3,12 61.5

FORECAST

2,3 491

TIERCE

2,3,12 1,696

TRIO

2,3,12 251

FIRST 4

2,3,9,12 620

QUARTET

2,3,12,9 16,780

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,11,14/2,3,12 18,885

3RD DOUBLE

14/2 307

14/3 50.5