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Sha Tin · 2025-11-15 · 07:10

Race 5

Class 4 1400m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-15 was Class 4 over 1400m. BUCEPHALAS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W K Mo, won, with THE GOLDEN KNIGHT second and WINNING DATA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite THE GOLDEN KNIGHT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:22.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 BUCEPHALAS Closed strongly 1:22.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W K Mo 10 8.0
2 9 THE GOLDEN KNIGHT Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 4.5 1-1/4
3 7 WINNING DATA Closed strongly R Kingscote · P F Yiu 4 16.0 2
4 3 OLDTOWN Closed strongly Z Purton · W Y So 13 5.6 2-1/4
5 6 TOP PEAK Led early K Teetan · B Crawford 9 36.0 2-1/2
6 2 ALL ROUND WINNER B Avdulla · D A Hayes 8 6.2 2-3/4
7 14 BLING BLING GENIUS Closed strongly H Bentley · D J Whyte 12 6.6 3-3/4
8 8 LAHORE Closed strongly L Ferraris · J Richards 14 47.0 4-1/4
9 5 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY H Bowman · A S Cruz 3 23.0 4-1/2
10 12 COME FAST FAY FAY C L Chau · K H Ting 5 22.0 5-1/4
11 10 WATCH THE FORT J Orman · D J Hall 2 124.0 10-3/4
12 11 POWER SUMMIT D Probert · D Eustace 11 90.0 12
13 13 ZETTA FORCE H Doyle · C H Yip 6 17.0 16-1/2
1 AEROVOLANIC J McDonald · P C Ng 9.9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BUCEPHALAS2. THE GOLDEN KNIGHT+1.25L3. WINNING DATA+2L4. OLDTOWN+2.25L5. TOP PEAK+2.5L6. ALL ROUND WINNER+2.75L7. BLING BLING GENIUS+3.75L8. LAHORE+4.25L9. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY+4.5L10. COME FAST FAY FAY+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick OLDTOWN (15.9%) finished 4th — the winner BUCEPHALAS was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 OLDTOWN 15.9% 6.27 4
2 9 THE GOLDEN KNIGHT 14.6% 6.87 2
3 13 ZETTA FORCE 10.9% 9.18 13
4 2 ALL ROUND WINNER 9.6% 10.46 6
5 5 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 9.3% 10.79 9
6 8 LAHORE 8.7% 11.52 8
7 14 BLING BLING GENIUS 7.8% 12.79 7
8 7 WINNING DATA 7.0% 14.34 3
9 6 TOP PEAK 6.5% 15.49 5
10 12 COME FAST FAY FAY 3.9% 25.95 10
11 4 BUCEPHALAS 3.1% 32.70 1
12 11 POWER SUMMIT 1.5% 65.48 12
13 10 WATCH THE FORT 1.4% 70.70 11
OLDTOWNTHE GOLDEN KNIGHTZETTA FORCEALL ROUND WINNERCALIFORNIA DEEPLYLAHOREBLING BLING GENIUSWINNING DATATOP PEAKCOME FAST FAY FAYBUCEPHALAS — wonPOWER SUMMITWATCH THE FORT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 80.5

PLACE

4 29

7 41.5

9 18

QUINELLA

4,9 249

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 199.5

4,9 91.5

7,9 155

FORECAST

4,9 511

TIERCE

4,9,7 5,638

TRIO

4,7,9 1,146

FIRST 4

3,4,7,9 2,152

QUARTET

4,9,7,3 49,732

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

14/2/4 4,330

14/2/9 246

4TH DOUBLE

2/4 1,252

2/9 46.5