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Sha Tin · 2025-11-15 · 06:05

Race 3

Class 4 2000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-15 was Class 4 over 2000m. DOUBLE WIN, ridden by H Doyle and trained by K L Man, won, with SUPREME MASTERMIND second and SERANGOON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite FIREFOOT finished 7th.

Result

Official · 2:02.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 DOUBLE WIN Closed strongly 2:02.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Doyle · K L Man 11 6.0
2 1 SUPREME MASTERMIND Closed strongly J McDonald · D A Hayes 9 13.0 1/2
3 11 SERANGOON Closed strongly Z Purton · A S Cruz 4 5.5 1/2
4 8 FOREVER GLORIOUS K De Melo · B Crawford 3 28.0 2-1/4
5 3 CHARITY TOGETHER Closed strongly R Kingscote · D Eustace 13 15.0 2-3/4
6 5 GOOD GOOD B Avdulla · J Size 6 11.0 3-1/4
7 13 FIREFOOT H Bentley · W Y So 1 3.8 4-1/4
8 6 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly Y L Chung · C S Shum 14 33.0 5
9 12 VIVA TASTE K C Leung · K H Ting 2 10.0 5
10 2 SHARPEN BRIGHT M F Poon · D J Hall 8 12.0 5-1/4
11 10 KINGLY DEMEANOR Led early M L Yeung · A S Cruz 5 17.0 7
12 4 PACKING HURRICANE P N Wong · P C Ng 10 22.0 9-3/4
13 7 SUPER GOLDENDRAGON C L Chau · W K Mo 7 66.0 13
14 9 ILLUMINOUS J Orman · F C Lor 12 50.0 70-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DOUBLE WIN2. SUPREME MASTERMIND+0.5L3. SERANGOON+0.5L4. FOREVER GLORIOUS+2.25L5. CHARITY TOGETHER+2.75L6. GOOD GOOD+3.25L7. FIREFOOT+4.25L8. FOREVER FOLKS+5L9. VIVA TASTE+5L10. SHARPEN BRIGHT+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick FIREFOOT (17.0%) finished 7th — the winner DOUBLE WIN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 FIREFOOT 17.0% 5.87 7
2 11 SERANGOON 16.4% 6.10 3
3 14 DOUBLE WIN 10.4% 9.61 1
4 4 PACKING HURRICANE 7.7% 13.02 12
5 8 FOREVER GLORIOUS 7.7% 13.03 4
6 1 SUPREME MASTERMIND 7.3% 13.76 2
7 12 VIVA TASTE 5.4% 18.44 9
8 3 CHARITY TOGETHER 5.4% 18.69 5
9 5 GOOD GOOD 5.3% 18.75 6
10 2 SHARPEN BRIGHT 5.1% 19.63 10
11 10 KINGLY DEMEANOR 4.6% 21.87 11
12 6 FOREVER FOLKS 3.6% 27.84 8
13 9 ILLUMINOUS 2.6% 38.81 14
14 7 SUPER GOLDENDRAGON 1.6% 62.85 13
FIREFOOTSERANGOONDOUBLE WIN — wonPACKING HURRICANEFOREVER GLORIOUSSUPREME MASTERMINDVIVA TASTECHARITY TOGETHERGOOD GOODSHARPEN BRIGHTKINGLY DEMEANORFOREVER FOLKSILLUMINOUSSUPER GOLDENDRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 60

PLACE

1 40

11 19

14 23.5

QUINELLA

1,14 438.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 155.5

1,14 150

11,14 77.5

FORECAST

14,1 829

TIERCE

14,1,11 4,547

TRIO

1,11,14 895

FIRST 4

1,8,11,14 6,599

QUARTET

14,1,11,8 117,424

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

9/1 174

9/14 604