Sha Tin · 2025-11-15 · 05:35

Race 2

Class 5 1800m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-11-15 was Class 5 over 1800m. ON THE LASH, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P C Ng, won, with COOL BLUE second and NINJA DERBY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite NINJA DERBY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1:48.20

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	ON THE LASH Closed strongly 1:48.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P C Ng	L Ferraris	P C Ng	5	127 lb	12.0	—
2	13	COOL BLUE Closed strongly R Kingscote · W Y So	R Kingscote	W Y So	11	121 lb	11.0	N
3	6	NINJA DERBY Closed strongly L Hewitson · B Crawford	L Hewitson	B Crawford	2	132 lb	4.7	1-1/4
4	10	GOLD TACK Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall	Z Purton	D J Hall	9	126 lb	8.4	2-1/2
5	7	WAH MAY WAI WAI Led early H Bowman · A S Cruz	H Bowman	A S Cruz	10	130 lb	12.0	3-1/4
6	14	HARRY'S HERO M Chadwick · P F Yiu	M Chadwick	P F Yiu	1	118 lb	7.3	4-1/4
7	2	ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT Closed strongly J McDonald · J Richards	J McDonald	J Richards	7	135 lb	6.3	4-3/4
8	3	CELESTIAL PATCH Closed strongly A Atzeni · D Eustace	A Atzeni	D Eustace	4	134 lb	15.0	5
9	5	SMART TRIO Closed strongly K C Leung · C W Chang	K C Leung	C W Chang	13	133 lb	74.0	7-1/4
10	11	CHATEAU LE PECHE Closed strongly C L Chau · K H Ting	C L Chau	K H Ting	6	123 lb	15.0	7-1/2
11	1	JOLLY JUMPER P N Wong · W K Mo	P N Wong	W K Mo	14	128 lb	30.0	7-1/2
12	8	CELESTIAL HARMONY H Doyle · D A Hayes	H Doyle	D A Hayes	8	129 lb	15.0	8-3/4
13	12	LEATHER MASTER C Y Ho · K L Man	C Y Ho	K L Man	12	123 lb	24.0	9-3/4
14	4	YIU CHEUNG VICTORY K Teetan · C H Yip	K Teetan	C H Yip	3	134 lb	15.0	13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26

The model's top pick GOLD TACK (19.4%) finished 4th — the winner ON THE LASH was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	10	GOLD TACK	19.4%	5.17	4	8.4
2	9	ON THE LASH	8.1%	12.36	1	12.0
3	2	ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT	8.0%	12.47	7	6.3
4	6	NINJA DERBY	7.6%	13.15	3	4.7
5	4	YIU CHEUNG VICTORY	7.5%	13.31	14	15.0
6	8	CELESTIAL HARMONY	7.5%	13.32	12	15.0
7	7	WAH MAY WAI WAI	6.9%	14.49	5	12.0
8	14	HARRY'S HERO	6.9%	14.59	6	7.3
9	11	CHATEAU LE PECHE	6.8%	14.80	10	15.0
10	3	CELESTIAL PATCH	6.2%	16.24	8	15.0
11	13	COOL BLUE	4.5%	22.07	2	11.0
12	12	LEATHER MASTER	4.5%	22.18	13	24.0
13	1	JOLLY JUMPER	4.4%	22.52	11	30.0
14	5	SMART TRIO	1.8%	57.03	9	74.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 126.5

PLACE

6 19.5

9 43.5

13 33

QUINELLA

9,13 610.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 109

6,13 127.5

9,13 186

FORECAST

9,13 1,303

TIERCE

9,13,6 4,568

TRIO

6,9,13 779

FIRST 4

6,9,10,13 602

QUARTET

9,13,6,10 16,142

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

10/9 857.5

10/13 133.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,10,14/6,9,13 257,799

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