Happy Valley · 2025-12-03 · 20:11
Race 3
Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | NINJA DERBY Closed strongly 1:49.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · B Crawford | L Hewitson | B Crawford | 9 | 4.7 | — |
| 2 | 2 | STORM RUNNER Closed strongly Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 12 | 3.1 | N |
| 3 | 3 | SUPER SICARIO Closed strongly D Probert · C Fownes | D Probert | C Fownes | 10 | 12.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | WAH MAY WAI WAI Led early H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 5 | 7.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | STAR BROSE Closed strongly B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 6 | 7.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | GOLD TACK J Orman · D J Hall | J Orman | D J Hall | 3 | 18.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | COOL BLUE Closed strongly R Kingscote · W Y So | R Kingscote | W Y So | 8 | 10.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | FURY AND GOLD H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 1 | 31.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | LITTLE FAIRY Closed strongly M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 2 | 58.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT J McDonald · J Richards | J McDonald | J Richards | 4 | 15.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | PERPETUAL POWER M Guyon · C W Chang | M Guyon | C W Chang | 7 | 37.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | SILVER KING K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 11 | 25.0 | 23-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-03 was Class 5 over 1800m. NINJA DERBY, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by B Crawford, won, with STORM RUNNER second and SUPER SICARIO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite STORM RUNNER finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | STORM RUNNER | 20.8% | 4.82 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | NINJA DERBY | 17.4% | 5.76 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | WAH MAY WAI WAI | 10.6% | 9.39 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | GOLD TACK | 10.3% | 9.69 | 6 |
| 5 | 1 | STAR BROSE | 8.9% | 11.20 | 5 |
| 6 | 5 | ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT | 8.8% | 11.31 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | FURY AND GOLD | 5.5% | 18.20 | 8 |
| 8 | 3 | SUPER SICARIO | 5.3% | 18.98 | 3 |
| 9 | 10 | COOL BLUE | 4.6% | 21.72 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | PERPETUAL POWER | 3.6% | 27.86 | 11 |
| 11 | 11 | LITTLE FAIRY | 2.1% | 46.71 | 9 |
| 12 | 12 | SILVER KING | 2.1% | 48.69 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 47
PLACE
2 14.5
3 36
6 18
QUINELLA
2,6 74
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 72
2,6 35.5
3,6 81
FORECAST
6,2 199
TIERCE
6,2,3 1,375
TRIO
2,3,6 277
FIRST 4
2,3,6,8 405
QUARTET
6,2,3,8 8,167
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
8/2 38.5
8/6 308.5