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Happy Valley · 2025-12-03 · 11:45

Race 2

Class 4 2200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-03 was Class 4 over 2200m. DOUBLE WIN, ridden by H Doyle and trained by K L Man, won, with NEARLY FINE second and PACKING HURRICANE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite SERANGOON finished 7th.

Result

Official · 2:15.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 DOUBLE WIN Closed strongly 2:15.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Doyle · K L Man 1 5.9
2 1 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly H Bowman · C Fownes 11 13.0 SH
3 3 PACKING HURRICANE Closed strongly H Bentley · P C Ng 12 51.0 1/2
4 2 SHARPEN BRIGHT B Avdulla · Y S Tsui 4 10.0 3/4
5 11 PERFECT PAIRING M Chadwick · J Size 2 10.0 2-1/4
6 9 MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly K Teetan · D J Hall 8 7.1 2-1/4
7 4 SERANGOON Z Purton · A S Cruz 5 4.1 2-3/4
8 5 KINGLY DEMEANOR J McDonald · A S Cruz 10 14.0 4-1/4
9 7 VIVA TASTE M Guyon · K H Ting 7 23.0 4-1/4
10 10 MISSION STRIKE L Hewitson · M Newnham 6 5.3 4-1/2
11 12 DASHING DRAGON M L Yeung · D A Hayes 9 35.0 8-3/4
12 6 MEGA FORCE Led early L Ferraris · P C Ng 3 17.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DOUBLE WIN2. NEARLY FINE+0.1L3. PACKING HURRICANE+0.5L4. SHARPEN BRIGHT+0.75L5. PERFECT PAIRING+2.25L6. MANAGEMENT FOLKS+2.25L7. SERANGOON+2.75L8. KINGLY DEMEANOR+4.25L9. VIVA TASTE+4.25L10. MISSION STRIKE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick SERANGOON (22.1%) finished 7th — the winner DOUBLE WIN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SERANGOON 22.1% 4.53 7
2 8 DOUBLE WIN 20.3% 4.93 1
3 5 KINGLY DEMEANOR 9.6% 10.46 8
4 2 SHARPEN BRIGHT 9.5% 10.54 4
5 10 MISSION STRIKE 8.0% 12.53 10
6 9 MANAGEMENT FOLKS 7.9% 12.73 6
7 1 NEARLY FINE 5.4% 18.50 2
8 11 PERFECT PAIRING 4.2% 23.86 5
9 6 MEGA FORCE 4.1% 24.10 12
10 7 VIVA TASTE 3.5% 28.44 9
11 3 PACKING HURRICANE 3.0% 33.87 3
12 12 DASHING DRAGON 2.5% 39.26 11
SERANGOONDOUBLE WIN — wonKINGLY DEMEANORSHARPEN BRIGHTMISSION STRIKEMANAGEMENT FOLKSNEARLY FINEPERFECT PAIRINGMEGA FORCEVIVA TASTEPACKING HURRICANEDASHING DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 59

PLACE

1 37

3 116.5

8 22.5

QUINELLA

1,8 350

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 852.5

1,8 119.5

3,8 436

FORECAST

8,1 677

TIERCE

8,1,3 24,823

TRIO

1,3,8 5,824

FIRST 4

1,2,3,8 12,677

QUARTET

8,1,3,2 228,735

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/1 127

3/8 221.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,6,12/1,3,8 232,526