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Happy Valley · 2025-12-03 · 13:50

Race 6

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-03 was Class 4 over 1200m. CALIFORNIA BLITZ, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W K Mo, won, with KNOW AT HEART second and ACE POWER third. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1:09.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 CALIFORNIA BLITZ 1:09.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W K Mo 7 3.4
2 11 KNOW AT HEART H Doyle · W Y So 5 9.3 SH
3 3 ACE POWER L Ferraris · D J Whyte 10 20.0 1-1/4
4 5 WORD OF KINDNESS R Kingscote · C S Shum 1 85.0 1-3/4
5 9 JUICY DRAGON M Guyon · K L Man 8 39.0 2-1/2
6 2 MASTER PHOENIX B Avdulla · D Eustace 2 22.0 2-1/2
7 1 LUNAR DASH Z Purton · M Newnham 9 4.1 2-3/4
8 4 I AM BACK D Probert · C Fownes 12 58.0 4-1/2
9 7 ONE LOVE H Bowman · J Size 6 16.0 4-3/4
10 12 VON BAER K Teetan · D A Hayes 11 14.0 4-3/4
11 10 CIRCUIT DUFFY K C Leung · F C Lor 4 84.0 6-1/4
12 8 SUPER UNIVERSAL C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 3.6 18-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIA BLITZ2. KNOW AT HEART+0.1L3. ACE POWER+1.25L4. WORD OF KINDNESS+1.75L5. JUICY DRAGON+2.5L6. MASTER PHOENIX+2.5L7. LUNAR DASH+2.75L8. I AM BACK+4.5L9. ONE LOVE+4.75L10. VON BAER+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick SUPER UNIVERSAL (27.4%) finished 12th — the winner CALIFORNIA BLITZ was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 SUPER UNIVERSAL 27.4% 3.65 12
2 1 LUNAR DASH 23.8% 4.20 7
3 6 CALIFORNIA BLITZ 18.4% 5.44 1
4 11 KNOW AT HEART 5.8% 17.15 2
5 3 ACE POWER 5.5% 18.04 3
6 12 VON BAER 5.1% 19.69 10
7 2 MASTER PHOENIX 4.6% 21.54 6
8 4 I AM BACK 2.3% 43.73 8
9 9 JUICY DRAGON 2.1% 47.47 5
10 7 ONE LOVE 2.0% 50.59 9
11 5 WORD OF KINDNESS 1.6% 60.65 4
12 10 CIRCUIT DUFFY 1.3% 77.32 11
SUPER UNIVERSALLUNAR DASHCALIFORNIA BLITZ — wonKNOW AT HEARTACE POWERVON BAERMASTER PHOENIXI AM BACKJUICY DRAGONONE LOVEWORD OF KINDNESSCIRCUIT DUFFY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 34.5

PLACE

3 47.5

6 14.5

11 23.5

QUINELLA

6,11 164

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 105

3,11 231.5

6,11 49

FORECAST

6,11 267

TIERCE

6,11,3 3,465

TRIO

3,6,11 814

FIRST 4

3,5,6,11 10,487

QUARTET

6,11,3,5 109,862

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,9/3,6,11 42,157

5TH DOUBLE

8/6 436.5

8/11 117.5

TRIPLE TRIO

2,3,6/1,8,9/3,6,11 1,435,033

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,3,6/1,8,9/Any Combination 4,091