Sha Tin · 2025-12-07 · 17:53
Race 10
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LITTLE PARADISE Closed strongly 1:21.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 8 | 2.6 | — |
| 2 | 2 | TOP DRAGON Closed strongly J McDonald · W Y So | J McDonald | W Y So | 10 | 4.6 | 1 |
| 3 | 14 | ETALON OR Closed strongly H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 6 | 9.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | GHORGAN Closed strongly M Guyon · K L Man | M Guyon | K L Man | 9 | 47.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | BUCEPHALAS Closed strongly M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 4 | 9.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | FORZA TORO A Atzeni · C Fownes | A Atzeni | C Fownes | 3 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 13 | LUCKY SAM GOR Closed strongly M F Poon · M Newnham | M F Poon | M Newnham | 14 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 4 | KA YING ATTACK Led early J Orman · D J Hall | J Orman | D J Hall | 13 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 5 | GUMMY GUMMY Closed strongly L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 5 | 59.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | GRATIFIDE R Kingscote · D Eustace | R Kingscote | D Eustace | 7 | 82.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | GOOD LUCK BABE Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 22.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | YOUNG ACHIEVER H Bowman · J Richards | H Bowman | J Richards | 2 | 20.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 11 | LUCKY TWIN STARS K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 12 | 53.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 14 | 7 | LUCKY TOGETHER K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 11 | 77.0 | 12-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-12-07 was Class 3 over 1400m. LITTLE PARADISE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K H Ting, won, with TOP DRAGON second and ETALON OR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LITTLE PARADISE | 36.9% | 2.71 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | TOP DRAGON | 12.8% | 7.81 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | KA YING ATTACK | 8.0% | 12.58 | 8 |
| 4 | 13 | LUCKY SAM GOR | 6.2% | 16.03 | 7 |
| 5 | 10 | FORZA TORO | 5.4% | 18.42 | 6 |
| 6 | 14 | ETALON OR | 5.3% | 18.72 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | GOOD LUCK BABE | 4.7% | 21.16 | 11 |
| 8 | 3 | YOUNG ACHIEVER | 4.5% | 22.06 | 12 |
| 9 | 12 | BUCEPHALAS | 3.8% | 26.06 | 5 |
| 10 | 11 | LUCKY TWIN STARS | 3.0% | 33.77 | 13 |
| 11 | 7 | LUCKY TOGETHER | 2.5% | 39.63 | 14 |
| 12 | 5 | GUMMY GUMMY | 2.5% | 40.12 | 9 |
| 13 | 6 | GHORGAN | 2.3% | 43.02 | 4 |
| 14 | 9 | GRATIFIDE | 2.0% | 51.01 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 26.5
PLACE
1 14
2 17.5
14 25.5
QUINELLA
1,2 61
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 27
1,14 46.5
2,14 68.5
FORECAST
1,2 94
TIERCE
1,2,14 436
TRIO
1,2,14 131
FIRST 4
1,2,6,14 1,555
QUARTET
1,2,14,6 14,349
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
5/5/1 9,670
5/5/2 2,225
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
4,5>10,13/1,2,14 7,769
9TH DOUBLE
5/1 458.5
5/2 113.5
SIX UP
2,3/6,7/1,11/5,6/4,5/1,2 2,425
6 [H Bowman] —
5 [C S Shum] —