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Sha Tin · 2025-12-07 · 07:05

Race 5

Class 4 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-12-07 was Class 4 over 1400m. WITH A SMILE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won, with FIT FOR BEAUTY second and POSITIVE SMILE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite FIT FOR BEAUTY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:22.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 WITH A SMILE Closed strongly 1:22.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So 2 3.8
2 3 FIT FOR BEAUTY Closed strongly J McDonald · J Size 7 2.6 3/4
3 12 POSITIVE SMILE Closed strongly M L Yeung · D A Hayes 13 18.0 1-1/2
4 11 BETTER AND BETTER C Y Ho · F C Lor 4 6.6 1-1/2
5 6 RELIABLE DAD Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall 9 52.0 4-3/4
6 8 WINNING DATA Closed strongly E C W Wong · P F Yiu 3 19.0 5
7 14 TOP TO SKY Led early K C Leung · C H Yip 5 66.0 6
8 7 STAR ELEGANCE Closed strongly J Orman · D J Whyte 8 117.0 7-1/4
9 9 CALIFORNIA BANNER M Chadwick · W K Mo 12 13.0 8
10 1 FUN TOGETHER C L Chau · C W Chang 10 20.0 9
11 10 LAHORE L Ferraris · J Richards 1 19.0 10-1/4
12 5 STAR GLOW R Kingscote · K W Lui 14 81.0 16-3/4
13 13 WIN SPEED L Hewitson · B Crawford 11 16.0 17
14 4 FLYING TING LOK M F Poon · K L Man 6 56.0 30-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WITH A SMILE2. FIT FOR BEAUTY+0.75L3. POSITIVE SMILE+1.5L4. BETTER AND BETTER+1.5L5. RELIABLE DAD+4.75L6. WINNING DATA+5L7. TOP TO SKY+6L8. STAR ELEGANCE+7.25L9. CALIFORNIA BANNER+8L10. FUN TOGETHER+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick FIT FOR BEAUTY (26.9%) finished 2nd — the winner WITH A SMILE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 FIT FOR BEAUTY 26.9% 3.72 2
2 2 WITH A SMILE 19.9% 5.03 1
3 11 BETTER AND BETTER 13.2% 7.60 4
4 8 WINNING DATA 7.3% 13.77 6
5 9 CALIFORNIA BANNER 6.9% 14.44 9
6 10 LAHORE 4.9% 20.26 11
7 1 FUN TOGETHER 4.8% 21.04 10
8 12 POSITIVE SMILE 4.7% 21.12 3
9 4 FLYING TING LOK 2.8% 35.58 14
10 13 WIN SPEED 2.8% 35.86 13
11 6 RELIABLE DAD 2.0% 50.24 5
12 14 TOP TO SKY 1.6% 60.70 7
13 7 STAR ELEGANCE 1.3% 78.44 8
14 5 STAR GLOW 1.0% 105.14 12
FIT FOR BEAUTYWITH A SMILE — wonBETTER AND BETTERWINNING DATACALIFORNIA BANNERLAHOREFUN TOGETHERPOSITIVE SMILEFLYING TING LOKWIN SPEEDRELIABLE DADTOP TO SKYSTAR ELEGANCESTAR GLOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 38

PLACE

2 15

3 14

12 41

QUINELLA

2,3 55.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 24.5

2,12 93.5

3,12 78

FORECAST

2,3 120

TIERCE

2,3,12 994

TRIO

2,3,12 237

FIRST 4

2,3,11,12 213

QUARTET

2,3,12,11 4,459

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

3/4/2 20,650

3/4/3 2,282

4TH DOUBLE

4/2 564.5

4/3 55.5