Sha Tin · 2025-12-07 · 06:05
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-12-07 was Class 4 over 1200m. EMBRACE ABERDEEN, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won, with AURIO second and VIGOR EYE third. The 3.7 favourite VIGOR EYE finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | EMBRACE ABERDEEN 1:09.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 9 | 60.0 | — |
| 2 | 1 | AURIO J Orman · K L Man | J Orman | K L Man | 7 | 4.1 | SH |
| 3 | 5 | VIGOR EYE B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 2 | 3.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | DIRIYA M Guyon · C H Yip | M Guyon | C H Yip | 3 | 25.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | INVICTUS DRAGON C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 6.8 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | GASTRONOMIQUE Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 1 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | BROWNNEEDSFURTHER L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 6 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | SEA SAPPHIRE Y L Chung · D Eustace | Y L Chung | D Eustace | 8 | 20.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | ABSOLUTE HONOUR L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 11 | 74.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | LITTLE MONSTER C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 12 | 15.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 4 | FLYING CHRISTIE M L Yeung · P C Ng | M L Yeung | P C Ng | 5 | 62.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | AUTUMN VIBES A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 10 | 5.6 | 11-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | INVICTUS DRAGON | 15.2% | 6.56 | 5 |
| 2 | 9 | GASTRONOMIQUE | 14.4% | 6.95 | 6 |
| 3 | 10 | AUTUMN VIBES | 14.2% | 7.06 | 12 |
| 4 | 5 | VIGOR EYE | 13.2% | 7.55 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | BROWNNEEDSFURTHER | 10.1% | 9.87 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | LITTLE MONSTER | 9.1% | 11.02 | 10 |
| 7 | 11 | DIRIYA | 5.8% | 17.33 | 4 |
| 8 | 1 | AURIO | 4.3% | 23.41 | 2 |
| 9 | 3 | EMBRACE ABERDEEN | 4.0% | 25.17 | 1 |
| 10 | 8 | ABSOLUTE HONOUR | 3.7% | 26.78 | 9 |
| 11 | 4 | FLYING CHRISTIE | 3.2% | 30.79 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | SEA SAPPHIRE | 2.8% | 36.11 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 604
PLACE
1 17
3 142.5
5 17
QUINELLA
1,3 1,082
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 273.5
1,5 41
3,5 386.5
FORECAST
3,1 2,883
TIERCE
3,1,5 17,598
TRIO
1,3,5 1,614
FIRST 4
1,3,5,11 5,703
QUARTET
3,1,5,11 318,065
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
6/1 183
6/3 4,902