Happy Valley · 2025-12-17 · 18:41
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | STAR BROSE Closed strongly 2:16.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 4 | 5.6 | — |
| 2 | 1 | PERFECT PAIRING Closed strongly J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 5 | 8.1 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | STORM RUNNER Closed strongly Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 11 | 3.2 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | LEATHER MASTER H Doyle · K L Man | H Doyle | K L Man | 6 | 18.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 11 | CHATEAU LE PECHE Closed strongly C L Chau · K H Ting | C L Chau | K H Ting | 8 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 10 | 8.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | WAH MAY WAI WAI Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 14.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | ROMANTIC FANTASY B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 1 | 12.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | GOLDEN FAIRY Led early L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 3 | 34.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | SUPER SICARIO D Probert · C Fownes | D Probert | C Fownes | 2 | 7.9 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | PERPETUAL POWER R Kingscote · C W Chang | R Kingscote | C W Chang | 7 | 41.0 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | COSMO LIGHT J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 12 | 65.0 | 15 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-17 was Class 5 over 2200m. STAR BROSE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D A Hayes, won, with PERFECT PAIRING second and STORM RUNNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite STORM RUNNER finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | STORM RUNNER | 18.5% | 5.39 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | STAR BROSE | 16.4% | 6.09 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | PERFECT PAIRING | 16.1% | 6.21 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | SUPER SICARIO | 14.3% | 6.99 | 10 |
| 5 | 5 | ROMANTIC FANTASY | 7.2% | 13.84 | 8 |
| 6 | 8 | WAH MAY WAI WAI | 6.2% | 16.01 | 7 |
| 7 | 10 | SUPER HONG KONG | 6.0% | 16.77 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | CHATEAU LE PECHE | 5.0% | 19.92 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | LEATHER MASTER | 3.3% | 30.16 | 4 |
| 10 | 7 | GOLDEN FAIRY | 2.8% | 36.01 | 9 |
| 11 | 6 | PERPETUAL POWER | 2.0% | 49.10 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | COSMO LIGHT | 2.0% | 49.10 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 56
PLACE
1 28.5
2 14.5
4 17.5
QUINELLA
1,4 271.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 56
1,4 89
2,4 40
FORECAST
4,1 398
TIERCE
4,1,2 1,253
TRIO
1,2,4 172
FIRST 4
1,2,4,12 812
QUARTET
4,1,2,12 15,623