Happy Valley · 2025-12-17 · 12:45
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-17 was Class 4 over 1200m. FLASH STAR, ridden by R Kingscote and trained by C S Shum, won, with LOVING VIBES second and BITS SUPERSTAR third. The 2.4 favourite THUNDER PRINCE finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | FLASH STAR 1:09.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Kingscote · C S Shum | R Kingscote | C S Shum | 8 | 41.0 | — |
| 2 | 8 | LOVING VIBES C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 6 | 9.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | BITS SUPERSTAR J McDonald · D J Hall | J McDonald | D J Hall | 4 | 8.7 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | MEGA BONUS K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 3 | 18.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY H Doyle · A S Cruz | H Doyle | A S Cruz | 12 | 25.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | SUPERB BOY J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 7 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 2 | KING OBERON L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 5 | 6.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | THUNDER PRINCE Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 1 | 2.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL H Bowman · C H Yip | H Bowman | C H Yip | 2 | 6.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | ALABAMA SONG B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 10 | 27.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | EVERYONE'S GALLOP C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 9 | 59.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | THE PROMISE M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 11 | 97.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | THUNDER PRINCE | 38.2% | 2.62 | 8 |
| 2 | 1 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL | 12.4% | 8.08 | 9 |
| 3 | 8 | LOVING VIBES | 11.4% | 8.78 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | KING OBERON | 11.0% | 9.10 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 | BITS SUPERSTAR | 8.9% | 11.21 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | MEGA BONUS | 4.8% | 20.65 | 4 |
| 7 | 9 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 4.2% | 24.06 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | ALABAMA SONG | 3.0% | 33.30 | 10 |
| 9 | 3 | SUPERB BOY | 2.4% | 42.16 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | EVERYONE'S GALLOP | 1.5% | 65.78 | 11 |
| 11 | 12 | FLASH STAR | 1.3% | 76.76 | 1 |
| 12 | 10 | THE PROMISE | 0.9% | 112.41 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 412
PLACE
7 25
8 23.5
12 86.5
QUINELLA
8,12 2,100
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 109
7,12 398.5
8,12 511.5
FORECAST
12,8 4,361
TIERCE
12,8,7 34,407
TRIO
7,8,12 4,543
FIRST 4
5,7,8,12 10,935
QUARTET
12,8,7,5 386,663
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
1/6/8 2,205
1/6/12 72,806
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,6,10/7,8,12 334,193
4TH DOUBLE
6/8 72
6/12 3,313.5