Happy Valley · 2025-12-17 · 14:55
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-17 was Class 3 over 1650m. A AMERIC TE SPECSO, ridden by J McDonald and trained by J Size, won, with CHILL KAKA second and MIGHTY STEED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite SOUTH STAR finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO Closed strongly 1:40.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 3 | 7.2 | — |
| 2 | 8 | CHILL KAKA Closed strongly M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 1 | 22.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | MIGHTY STEED Led early H Doyle · K W Lui | H Doyle | K W Lui | 8 | 6.8 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | SUPER UNICORN A Atzeni · M Newnham | A Atzeni | M Newnham | 2 | 9.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | CALL ME TOPSEED J Orman · K L Man | J Orman | K L Man | 12 | 55.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | I CAN Closed strongly L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 7 | 19.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | FANTASTIC FUN Closed strongly M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 11 | 19.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | FLASH CURRENT Closed strongly H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 10 | 32.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | VERMILION TEMPEST Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 9 | 65.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | SOUTH STAR Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 4 | 2.2 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | YOUNG EMPEROR H Bowman · D Eustace | H Bowman | D Eustace | 6 | 8.8 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | NOVA KNIGHT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 5 | 22.0 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SOUTH STAR | 35.2% | 2.84 | 10 |
| 2 | 4 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 17.6% | 5.68 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | MIGHTY STEED | 9.0% | 11.11 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | SUPER UNICORN | 7.8% | 12.80 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | FANTASTIC FUN | 6.8% | 14.64 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | YOUNG EMPEROR | 6.0% | 16.57 | 11 |
| 7 | 1 | I CAN | 5.7% | 17.40 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | CHILL KAKA | 4.6% | 21.59 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | FLASH CURRENT | 2.6% | 37.80 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | NOVA KNIGHT | 2.1% | 47.27 | 12 |
| 11 | 5 | CALL ME TOPSEED | 1.3% | 77.42 | 5 |
| 12 | 9 | VERMILION TEMPEST | 1.1% | 94.82 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 72
PLACE
4 18.5
8 58
12 21
QUINELLA
4,8 940
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 183
4,12 60
8,12 196
FORECAST
4,8 1,198
TIERCE
4,8,12 10,339
TRIO
4,8,12 1,468
FIRST 4
4,6,8,12 2,009
QUARTET
4,8,12,6 50,310
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
12/9/4 9,978
12/9/8 7,154
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,9/4,8,12 112,917
8TH DOUBLE
9/4 388.5
9/8 341
SIX UP
2,6/8,12/7,8/3,12/7,9/4,8 219,782
3 [J Size] —
4 [J McDonald] —