Happy Valley · 2025-12-23 · 10:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-23 was Class 5 over 1200m. CONCORDE STAR, ridden by J Orman and trained by Y S Tsui, won, with NEBRASKAN second and HAPPY BOYS third. The 4.3 favourite NEBRASKAN finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | CONCORDE STAR 1:09.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · Y S Tsui | J Orman | Y S Tsui | 3 | 9.9 | — |
| 2 | 3 | NEBRASKAN B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 2 | 4.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | HAPPY BOYS Z Purton · M Newnham | Z Purton | M Newnham | 12 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | EVER SMART H Doyle · F C Lor | H Doyle | F C Lor | 9 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | TEAM HAPPY K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 5 | 5.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | ROBOT KNIGHT E C W Wong · K L Man | E C W Wong | K L Man | 6 | 28.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | GENERAL SMART H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 11 | 8.1 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | SONIC BOOM H Bentley · W K Mo | H Bentley | W K Mo | 10 | 5.8 | 5 |
| 9 | 9 | BRILLIANT FIRE D Probert · D J Whyte | D Probert | D J Whyte | 7 | 47.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | SKY SONG L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 4 | 11.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 1 | BLAZING BEAM L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 8 | 25.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | WOODFIRE CHAMP M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 1 | 13.0 | 11-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | NEBRASKAN | 18.5% | 5.42 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | SKY SONG | 16.1% | 6.21 | 10 |
| 3 | 7 | TEAM HAPPY | 13.0% | 7.67 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | HAPPY BOYS | 11.1% | 9.01 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | WOODFIRE CHAMP | 9.1% | 10.98 | 12 |
| 6 | 2 | GENERAL SMART | 8.7% | 11.44 | 7 |
| 7 | 12 | EVER SMART | 6.1% | 16.51 | 4 |
| 8 | 11 | SONIC BOOM | 4.5% | 22.35 | 8 |
| 9 | 1 | BLAZING BEAM | 4.1% | 24.52 | 11 |
| 10 | 4 | ROBOT KNIGHT | 3.7% | 26.78 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | CONCORDE STAR | 2.9% | 33.91 | 1 |
| 12 | 9 | BRILLIANT FIRE | 2.2% | 45.88 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 99
PLACE
3 18
5 41
10 31
QUINELLA
3,10 231
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 120.5
3,10 86.5
5,10 233.5
FORECAST
10,3 630
TIERCE
10,3,5 8,998
TRIO
3,5,10 1,533
FIRST 4
3,5,10,12 2,895
QUARTET
10,3,5,12 78,435